The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has confirmed there is sufficient aviation fuel capacity across Europe for the summer of 2026, easing earlier fears of potential flight cancellations that could have disrupted holiday travel for millions. The assessment, delivered by IATA's regional vice president for Europe, Rafael Schvartzman, signals relief for residents planning trips during the peak tourist season, though ticket prices are expected to rise sharply due to fuel cost pressures.
Why This Matters
• Fuel supply is secured for at least the next four to six weeks, covering the start of the summer season.
• Ticket prices are climbing — fuel now accounts for up to 45% of airline operating costs, up from 25–30% previously.
• Airport delays remain a concern as the EU's new digital border system (EES) continues to create bottlenecks, especially in Portugal's main hubs.
From Crisis Alert to Cautious Optimism
Back in April, the aviation industry braced for potential fuel shortages driven by geopolitical instability in the Middle East and strained global supply chains. IATA had warned that flight cancellations could materialize by late May if conditions deteriorated. Two months later, the picture has stabilized. European refineries ramped up Jet A-1 production, while mandatory EU strategic reserves — covering 90 days of petroleum stocks — provided a critical buffer.
Spain has emerged as a key player in this supply equation. With robust refining capacity, Spanish facilities are now positioned to support neighboring countries that lack similar infrastructure. Portugal, heavily reliant on imports, stands to benefit directly from this regional coordination. The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has also issued guidance allowing the use of Jet A fuel from the United States as a fallback option, though no imports have been necessary so far.
The Fuel Cost Surge and What It Means for Your Wallet
While supply disruptions have been avoided, the cost of aviation fuel has surged, and airlines are passing those expenses on to consumers. Fuel costs, which historically represented around 30% of an airline's budget, now exceed 40% and can reach as high as 46% of total operating expenses. Schvartzman confirmed that ticket prices are already rising, with the impact expected to persist throughout the year rather than dissipate quickly.
For residents booking summer holidays within Europe, this translates to higher fares across the board. The pricing pressure is compounded by strong demand for intra-European travel, as many passengers are choosing Mediterranean and Western European destinations over long-haul flights to Asia or the Far East. This shift in travel patterns has intensified competition for seats on popular routes, further inflating prices.
Airlines are deploying hedging strategies to absorb some volatility, but the scale of the increase limits how much they can shield passengers. The result is a market where early bookers may have secured better rates, but last-minute travelers face steeper costs.
Border Chaos: The EES System Strains Portugal's Airports
While fuel concerns have eased, another operational challenge is straining the aviation sector: the Entry/Exit System (EES), the EU's digital border control platform that replaced manual passport stamps with biometric data collection on April 10. The system, which applies to all non-EU travelers entering or leaving the Schengen Area, has caused significant delays at Lisbon, Porto, and Faro airports.
Travelers have reported wait times exceeding seven hours at Lisbon's airport during peak periods in recent weeks. Video footage from recent weeks showed sprawling queues and frustrated passengers, many of whom missed connections or faced lengthy processing delays. The situation prompted the Portugal Royal Police (PSP), which manages border controls, to invoke an emergency suspension mechanism that allows authorities to temporarily halt biometric data collection for up to six hours per day when queues become unmanageable.
This flexibility, granted by EU regulation, covers the critical summer travel window through the initial 90-day suspension period, with a complementary 60-day extension available as needed. However, industry representatives note that the most flexible provisions may expire as early as July, raising concerns about congestion during peak late-summer travel. The Portuguese government has added more staffing, expanded e-gate capacity, and introduced additional processing booths at major airports. The Ministry of Internal Affairs expressed cautious optimism in late May, stating that recent upgrades have improved flow, but industry executives remain skeptical.
What This Means for Residents and Travelers
For residents planning international trips or hosting visitors from outside the EU, the advice from IATA and airline industry representatives is straightforward: build in extra time. Experts recommend arriving at the airport at least two to three hours before departure for international flights, particularly during weekends and holidays when traffic peaks. Travelers should monitor airline and airport communications closely and confirm flight status before leaving home.
For Portugal residents hosting family and friends from outside the EU, warn them in advance about the EES requirements and extended processing times to help them avoid missed connections.
António Moura Portugal, executive director of the National Association of Airlines (RENA), praised the government's response but warned that the measures are not sufficient for the long haul. He stressed that Portugal must advocate aggressively in Brussels to extend the suspension flexibility beyond the current timeline, when existing provisions are set to expire. Without further regulatory adjustments, the risk of severe congestion returns during late summer.
For non-EU passport holders, the EES adds a layer of complexity. First-time registrants must provide fingerprints and facial recognition data, a process that can take several minutes per traveler. Repeat visitors are processed more quickly, but the initial surge of new registrations has overwhelmed border infrastructure across Europe. Airports in Frankfurt, Paris Charles de Gaulle, and other major hubs have reported similar backlogs, with some carriers publicly calling for a temporary suspension of the system.
Looking Ahead: Fuel Risks and Policy Pressure
While the immediate summer outlook is stable, IATA has flagged potential vulnerabilities in the fourth quarter of 2026. If geopolitical tensions escalate or refining capacity tightens, Europe may need to import Jet A fuel from the United States to bridge supply gaps. The availability of this option provides a safety valve, but it also introduces logistical complexities and potential cost increases.
Schvartzman emphasized that fuel forecasting is reliable only within a four to six-week horizon, meaning the industry operates on continuous reassessment. Summer travelers are in the clear for now, but autumn and winter schedules could face renewed pressure.
On the border control front, Portugal's aviation sector is urging the government to take a leadership role within the EU. Moura Portugal argued that the country's economy — where tourism accounts for a significant share of GDP — is disproportionately affected by the EES rollout. He called for Portugal to lead a coalition of member states pushing for permanent flexibility measures, rather than temporary exemptions that expire just as peak season ends.
Additional EU support and resources have been deployed to assist Portugal with border management, with training programs and infrastructure upgrades underway. However, the scale of the challenge has exposed gaps in planning and execution.
The Bottom Line for Summer 2026
Residents and visitors can expect a summer with no fuel shortages, higher ticket prices, and unpredictable airport delays. The convergence of rising operational costs and new border technology has created a complex travel environment where advance planning and patience are essential. Airlines and airports are working to minimize disruption, but the system remains under strain.
For those with trips already booked, the message from industry leaders is clear: stay informed, allow extra time, and avoid last-minute changes that could compound delays. The fuel supply is stable, the flights will operate, but the journey to the gate may take longer than it used to.
