Portugal Enjoys Above-Average Weekend Sun Ahead of Monday Showers

After a mid-week soaking from depression Bram, Portugal is heading into a weekend of see-saw weather, with temperatures running noticeably above the December average but frequent bursts of rain driven by Atlantic fronts. Expect sunlit breaks, especially on Saturday, yet keep an eye on the umbrella, because by Monday a new wet pulse sweeps in from the west.

Quick glance before you plan

• Saturday looks brightest nationwide, though the North wakes up to near-freezing dawns.

• Sunday softens in Lisbon but clouds thicken over the Algarve and Madeira.

• Monday–Tuesday bring the main rain band, heaviest in the North and Centre.

• Mid-week clearance possible on Wednesday, yet thermometers drop 2-3 °C in the interior.

Lisbon & Tagus Valley: pleasant afternoons, unsettled nights

The capital shakes off Bram with a spring-like 17 °C on Saturday and Sunday. Sunny spells dominate daylight, but low clouds creep in after sunset, keeping nights around 11 °C–12 °C. From Monday, a 40 % rain chance rises to 70 % by Tuesday, with totals near 6 mm and brisk westerly gusts to 37 km/h. Visibility could dip during heavier showers, so morning commuters should allow extra minutes. By Wednesday skies start to crack open again, although maxima slide toward 15 °C.

Northern districts & highlands: sharp chills, serial showers

Porto, Braga and the Serra da Estrela begin the weekend under crisp blue sky yet lows of 3 °C–5 °C. Frost is possible in sheltered valleys. Saturday’s sunshine gives way to multi-hour rainfall on Monday, intensifying Tuesday when persistent bands may dump 15 mm or more north of the Montejunto-Estrela line. Strong southwestern gusts could top 70 km/h on ridges, and wet-snow flurries are not ruled out above 1,800 m. A tentative lull on Wednesday arrives hand-in-hand with a 5 °C drop in daytime readings.

Central heartland: weekend sparkle before umbrellas open

Coimbra and Leiria enjoy a bright, dry corridor through Sunday, with highs near 16 °C and a relative humidity below 60 %—rare for December. The respite ends Monday as Atlantic moisture surges inland. Expect steady precipitation, peaking Tuesday afternoon; models hint at 8-12 mm in 24 hours. Although Wednesday promises broken sunshine, northerly breezes drag the mercury back to 11 °C, and dawn minima hover around 4 °C in the Beira interior.

South & Algarve: grey veils, spaced sunbeams, light showers

Faro starts Saturday under patchy cloud, but thermometers still touch 18 °C—a full 2 °C above the long-term norm. The cloud deck thickens Sunday night, yet Monday might yield the day’s best sunshine window across continental Portugal. From Tuesday a succession of weak fronts introduces short-lived showers and lingering overcast until at least Wednesday morning. Even so, rainfall totals stay modest, likely below 5 mm, while lows dip to 10 °C, so frost concerns remain low.

Islands outlook: Madeira recovering, Azores still stirred

Madeira reels from Bram’s downpours, but by Sunday the archipelago could salvage sun-splashed intervals around 21 °C. Monday reinstates dense mid-level cloud, and Tuesday sees another batch of tropical-sourced showers before a clearer Wednesday. The Azores endure a different script: gusty squalls topping 100 km/h, heavy rain and rough seas persist through the weekend, with a gradual easing only from late Monday.

Why the skies are so fickle this December

A positive-phase North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) usually grants Portugal calmer, drier winters. Yet this week the Azores High fails to build northwards, opening the door to successive frontal systems spun off the jet stream. While this configuration drags warm maritime air—hence the above-average temperatures—it also acts as a conveyor belt for rain-laden depressions. Climatologists at IPMA and ECMWF note that maximums of 15 °C–18 °C in mid-December exceed the 1981-2010 normals by 1 °C–3 °C, continuing the warming trend logged in recent decades.

Everyday implications & preparedness tips

Urban flooding risk: Saturated soils in Porto and Braga mean that an hour of intense rain could overload drainage—stash waterproof footwear in the car.

Driving over passes: If heading across the Serra da Estrela Tuesday, watch for wet-snow slicks above 1,600 m and possible road closures.

Public transport: Metro and suburban trains around Lisbon may impose speed restrictions during downpours, so anticipate minor delays.

Outdoor events: Saturday remains the pick of the bunch nationwide; if organising markets or matches, aim for morning slots to maximise sunshine.

Energy bills: Despite the mild afternoons, chilly inland nights push heaters back on; compare dual-tariff options before the next cold plunge.

Keeping an eye on IPMA’s hour-by-hour updates will be essential as models fine-tune the timing of Tuesday’s front. For now, the message is clear: enjoy Saturday’s light, prepare for a soggy start to the week, and brace for a cooler mid-week reset.