Teen Cyclist Paul Seixas Eyes Historic Upset at Volta ao Algarve Final Climb

The Volta ao Algarve concludes its 52nd edition with a mountain summit showdown that will crown a successor to Jonas Vingegaard, who won the 2024 edition. Juan Ayuso of the Lidl-Trek squad holds a razor-thin 7-second advantage over teenage sensation Paul Seixas heading into the 148.3 km final stage from Faro, featuring a double ascent of the notorious Alto do Malhão.

Why This Matters:

• National pride on the line: Portuguese rider João Almeida trails by 44 seconds, making a podium finish his most realistic goal.

• Youth vs. experience: 19-year-old Seixas, fresh off his first pro win atop Fóia, could become one of the youngest Volta ao Algarve champions.

• Elite cycling returns to the Algarve: This five-day race caps a week showcasing Portugal's southern coast to international cycling audiences and tourists.

The Battle for Yellow

Ayuso, 23, has defended the race leader's jersey since the second stage, but his margin over Seixas has shrunk to single digits. The Spaniard finished runner-up in last year's edition and now seeks to upgrade that silver medal to gold. His Lidl-Trek team has managed the race tactically, but the steep gradients of Malhão—a 2.6 km climb with sections hitting double-digit percentages—favor explosive finishers over time trialists.

Seixas, riding for Decathlon CMA CGM, sits second overall, positioned for a dramatic upset if he can match or better Ayuso's climbing legs on the final ascent. At just 19 years old, he announced his arrival among the sport's elite by out-sprinting Ayuso at the summit of Fóia in stage two. His strong performances so far this season suggest he has the potential to become a major player in professional cycling.

Almeida's Podium Push

Portugal's João Almeida, riding for UAE Team Emirates-XRG, sits third overall but faces a near-impossible task to overhaul the top two. His 44-second deficit means he'll need a collapse from both Ayuso and Seixas to claim victory, but a podium spot remains well within reach. The 2025 runner-up aims to secure consecutive top-three finishes at his home race, with Kévin Vauquelin of INEOS Grenadiers—fourth at 57 seconds—his primary rival for bronze.

Almeida finished third atop Fóia and placed 10th in the stage three time trial. While his overall chances dimmed after that test, he remains the highest-placed Portuguese rider and a fan favorite in a race that draws significant local support.

The Route: A Double Dose of Malhão

Riders depart Faro at mid-afternoon, with the intermediate sprint in Olhão coming just 7 km into the stage. The peloton then heads inland for a second sprint checkpoint in Loulé (km 52.3) before tackling the day's first categorized climb at Soidos (third category, km 91.9).

The first assault on Alto do Malhão—a second-category climb—arrives shortly after, followed by a technical descent and a return to Soidos (km 134.6). A brief flat section through Alte (km 132.5) offers little respite before the race's finale: a second, decisive climb up Malhão.

This final 2.6 km ascent to Loulé's highest point typically sees gaps open quickly, rewarding riders with the sharpest acceleration and best power-to-weight ratios. The stage winner is expected to cross the line around 15:52 local time, simultaneously deciding the overall classification.

What This Means for Residents

For cycling enthusiasts in Portugal, the Volta ao Algarve represents one of the country's premier international sporting events, drawing WorldTour teams and star riders to the region each February. The race generally boosts tourism and local business during the off-peak winter season, with host communities benefiting from the event's presence.

Road closures typically affect several municipalities throughout the race, particularly on summit finishes like Malhão. Residents in Loulé should anticipate traffic restrictions near the climb's base and summit from early afternoon through late evening during the race. Local authorities coordinate diversions, and those traveling within the Algarve should check municipal websites for updated closure schedules.

The race also serves as a platform for Portuguese cycling talent. Portugal has produced a growing number of professional cyclists in recent years, and strong performances at the Volta ao Algarve help sustain interest in the sport.

A New Champion Emerges

Whether the 2025 champion will be the experienced Ayuso or the young Seixas will be decided on the slopes of Malhão.

For Seixas, victory would mark a stunning early-season breakthrough and confirm his status as a rising talent in professional cycling.

For Ayuso, the win would validate his consistency and tactical maturity, proving he can close out stage races under pressure. The Spaniard's second-place finish in 2024 demonstrated his climbing ability; converting that into victory would signal his readiness for Grand Tour leadership roles with Lidl-Trek.

Podium Contenders

Beyond the top three, Vauquelin remains in striking distance of a podium spot. The 23-year-old Frenchman trails Almeida by just 13 seconds and could leapfrog the Portuguese rider if the UAE Emirates captain has an off day on Malhão.

The Countdown Begins

As the peloton rolls out of Faro, three riders will carry the hopes of their teams and nations up the slopes of Malhão. Ayuso seeks to hold his slender lead, Seixas aims to seize the moment and announce his arrival among cycling's elite, and Almeida fights to secure a podium at his home race.

The final kilometer of Malhão—steep, exposed, and unforgiving—will provide the answer. For fans lining the roadside and viewers watching across Portugal, the 52nd Volta ao Algarve promises a dramatic conclusion worthy of one of the sport's most respected early-season stage races.