Portugal Races to Drop Last Russian Gas Ahead of 2027 Ban

Portugal’s campaign to cut ties with Russian natural gas has made notable headway, yet the clock is ticking. A forthcoming EU-wide embargo on Russian LNG, scheduled for January 2027, means the country must squeeze the remaining 4.4 % share out of its energy mix within just over a year. While Lisbon can point to a sharp fall in Russian volumes since 2021, Brussels’ latest energy audit warns that complacency, not pipelines, could become the biggest obstacle as colder winters and volatile prices test political resolve.

A gradual but decisive shift

The national gas system has been flipping its own script. Three years ago roughly 15 % of all liquefied gas docking at Sines flew the Russian flag; by last year that slice had shrunk to 5 %, the equivalent of 0.233 bcm. Behind the figures are concerted cargo swaps with the United States, Nigeria, and Trinidad & Tobago, plus a surge in Iberian-made renewables that ate into overall gas demand. Even so, Portugal still unloaded 49,141 GWh of LNG in 2024, meaning each percentage point of Russian supply removed must be replaced fast, or not needed at all.

Brussels turns the screws

The European Commission’s annual State of the Energy Union report groups Portugal with seven other member states that still admit Russian LNG. Under tightened sanctions, contracts will be outlawed after 1 January 2027. Officials in Brussels praise Lisbon for "significant progress" on diversification, but the same document underscores that security of supply, geographical isolation, and limited cross-border pipeline capacity keep the pressure high. With the Pyrenees still a bottleneck, Portugal cannot rely on mid-continent gas hubs the way Germany or Poland can.

New suppliers, old challenges

Re-routing tankers has proven easier than upgrading infrastructure. Two expansion projects at Sines LNG terminal, combined with a nascent Iberian hydrogen corridor, could deliver more molecules from the Atlantic basin. Yet every extra ship must outbid Asian buyers currently paying premiums. Energy economists warn that dependence on spot cargoes leaves Portugal exposed to the same price roller-coaster that rattled households after the invasion of Ukraine. Long-term contracts with Qatar or Angola are on the negotiating table, but environmental campaigners argue the cash would be better spent accelerating offshore wind, solar, and green hydrogen production on home soil.

How the shift touches wallets and factories

Gas still feeds roughly one-third of the country’s electric-power output and anchors cost-sensitive industries such as ceramics, cement, and pulp & paper. Analysts at the Energy Services Regulatory Authority predict that erasing Russian volumes completely could lift wholesale prices by a further 4-6 % next year if global markets tighten. The government, however, counters that recent investments in storage caverns at Carriço and demand-side efficiency schemes should cushion shocks for consumers already carrying some of Europe’s highest energy bills.

Beyond 2027: autonomy or anxiety?

Political consensus inside the Assembly of the Republic still favours a swift uncoupling from Moscow, but the harder task is preventing a new form of dependence. The climate plan for 2030 aims to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 55 % relative to 2005, a target that implicitly limits room for additional gas of any origin. Success will hinge on how quickly Portugal can scale up electrolytic hydrogen, reinforce the Iberian power interconnector, and attract private capital at a time of tight European budgets. The next twelve months, therefore, are less about finding new ships and more about proving that the country can finally meet winter demand without leaning on the Kremlin’s spare capacity.