Portugal electricity price rise 2026: what households pay

Even if you have swapped every light bulb in the house for LEDs, the electricity bill landing in Portuguese mailboxes on the first days of 2026 is likely to be a few cents higher. The national regulator, ERSE, wants to lift the core tariff paid by families on the regulated market by 1 %, a move that would translate into an extra 0.20 € to 0.37 € each month. That is less than the official inflation outlook, meaning the cost of power would fall in real terms, yet it still raises the same question every autumn: why does the kWh keep creeping up and who is protected?

Why your January bill may inch up, but not as much as inflation

The 1 % adjustment, scheduled for 1 January 2026, arrives only a year after ERSE authorised a bigger, 2.1 % increase. Back then, a typical household using 5 000 kWh paid roughly 1.60 € more per month, a jump that was partially muted when the Government trimmed the VAT rate on electricity. By contrast, the fresh proposal would cost most families the price of an espresso and, because consumer prices are forecast to climb faster than that, the regulator insists the shift represents a "reduction in real terms".

Market size also matters. The regulated segment still serves about 820 000 households, many of them elderly or risk-averse consumers who never switched provider after liberalisation. Everyone else—roughly 5.7 M customers—buys power on the free market, where prices depend on wholesale costs and each retailer’s marketing margin. Those contracts are not directly capped by ERSE, but retailers invariably pass on changes in the network access fee that the regulator sets for all clients, regulated or not.

Anatomy of the 1 % proposal: what ERSE put on the table

Behind the modest headline number sits a complex cocktail of factors. ERSE expects suppliers to purchase slightly less electricity from legacy plants that hold above-market guaranteed tariffs, easing pressure on overall system costs. At the same time, 401 M € in “tariff-containment” measures—financed through carbon-permit auctions, a levy on petrol products and a windfall-profits clawback—will be injected to flatten bills. Taken together, those levers allow the regulator to keep the rise at 1 %, below the anticipated path of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).

Still, the tariff you see on page one of the bill is only part of the story. The other part is the line labelled Tarifas de Acesso. For most households the access component will climb 3 % in 2026, offsetting much of the headline restraint. ERSE says the jump is necessary to fund a once-in-a-generation overhaul of the distribution grid operated by E-Redes.

The hidden 3 %: network fees and the overhaul of E-Redes

Technical papers released last week reveal that E-Redes will see its allowed revenues swell by 93 M € next year, pushing the total to 1.224 B €. The bump reflects a provisional remuneration rate of 6.33 %—well above the previous 4.70 %—and underwrites a 1.6 B € investment plan for 2026-2030. Nearly half of that money is earmarked for replacing ageing cables, transformers and substations so the grid can handle the accelerating shift to electric vehicles and heat pumps.

Regulators admit the upgrade is painful in the short term but argue that failing to modernise would be costlier, risking outages and slowing Portugal’s legally binding climate targets for 2030. Large factories tied to very-high-voltage lines will actually enjoy marginal relief next year, with their access fee falling 3.2 %, a decision meant to shield export-oriented industries from energy-price shocks.

How liberalised offers might respond

Retailers such as Galp, Endesa and Goldenergy no longer need to charge customers an extra line item for the now-defunct “mecanismo ibérico do gás”, which expired at the end of 2023. Since then, wholesale prices on the MIBEL power exchange have drifted lower whenever strong winds and plentiful hydro dominate generation. Sector analysts interviewed by ACEMEL expect stable tariff packages in 2025 and early 2026, because the modest uptick in access fees is likely to be balanced by softer wholesale costs. Even so, consumers on variable-rate contracts should read renewal letters carefully: peak-hour kWh prices can still rise if retailers decide to protect margins.

Social tariff and fresh vouchers: who is shielded

Roughly 900 000 low-income families already benefit from the automatic social tariff, which slices 33.8 % off final electricity prices. That relief remains untouched in 2026. In parallel, the Government has opened the second wave of the Vale Eficiência programme and launched E-LAR, both financed by the Plano de Recuperação e Resiliência. These vouchers—worth up to 1 300 € plus VAT—can be spent on insulation, efficient appliances or small solar units. Brussels is also expected to channel 1.2 B € from cohesion funds into wider anti-energy-poverty schemes starting in 2026.

Consumer-rights group DECO, however, argues that a permanent 6 % VAT rate on all elements of the bill, not just the first kWh block, would deliver simpler and bigger savings, especially for large families. The idea has so far failed to secure parliamentary backing as the Government prioritises grid investment and debt amortisation inside ERSE’s tariff model.

What happens next in the tariff calendar

Procedurally, the draft now sits with the Tariff Council, a consultative body made up of industry, consumer and academic representatives. The Council has until 15 November to issue its opinion; ERSE must publish a final decision by 15 December. Unless the regulator is persuaded to tweak its numbers—a rare event in recent years—the 1 % rise will automatically apply on New Year’s Day. Households on the free market will feel the change later, when suppliers update price lists to incorporate the new 3 % network fee.