Portugal's Record Power Appetite Pressures Gas Plants and Wallets

Portugal’s electricity counters have not taken a breather this year: by the end of September the grid had already supplied more power than in any other comparable period since 2010, even after adjusting for heat-waves and public holidays. The surge has forced planners to lean harder on natural gas and imports while hurrying new wind-solar schemes onto the drawing board.

Why the meters won’t slow down

Economic activity has roared back from the timid recovery of 2024. Data centres near Porto, a tourism rebound along the Algarve and small manufacturers around Aveiro have combined to push national demand up 2.6 % year-on-year—or 2 % once statisticians smooth out weather quirks and work-day swings. That extra load lifted cumulative consumption to 39.2 TWh, nudging past the previous fifteen-year peak by 0.8 %. September itself extended the trend with a 2.2 % annual rise. In short, the country is burning through electrons faster than forecasters dared predict last winter.

Renewables: backbone tested but holding

Clean generation still sets the rhythm, covering 70 % of demand between January and September. A wet spring filled mountain reservoirs, allowing hydropower to deliver 28 % of total output, while brisk Atlantic breezes kept turbines spinning for 24 %. The headline act, however, has been solar. New photovoltaic farms around Évora and Santarém lifted sunshine power 25 % compared with 2024, taking its share to 13 %. Even so, September showed just how fickle Mother Nature can be: the wind ‘proficiency index’ jumped to 1.37—well above the seasonal norm—yet solar irradiance slipped to 0.95, cutting afternoon production and forcing the grid to lean on imports. The final monthly split landed at 57 % renewables, 17 % fossil generation and 26 % imports.

Gas, the swing player, surges again

Whenever clouds gather and reservoirs run low, gas-fired stations step in. Their appetite for fuel more than doubled versus last year, driving a 13 % climb in overall natural-gas consumption. Every molecule arrived by tanker at Sines LNG terminal, with Nigeria supplying 49 % and the United States 39 % of volumes so far in 2025. Conventional industry actually burned 8 % less gas, but the power sector’s spike masked that saving. Analysts warn that the grid’s heavy reliance on spot LNG exposes households to global price swings if shipping lanes clog or Asian buyers outbid European clients.

Imports, interconnectors and the Iberian lifeline

Despite spectacular growth in wind and solar, Portugal still tapped Spain for 16 % of its electricity during the nine-month period—and a quarter of September’s needs when sunshine faltered. Limited cables across the Pyrenees mean excess Iberian power cannot always flow north into France, occasionally inflating prices on the peninsula. The government backs Brussels’ plan for stronger cross-border links, yet environmental hearings and local scepticism continue to delay construction. Until then, flexible gas plants and pumped-storage dams remain the chief safety nets.

Projects racing to catch up

Developers are scrambling to close the gap before the next demand spurt. Iberdrola expects to break ground in early 2026 on a €350 M hybrid wind-hydro complex spanning Vila Real and Braga—Portugal’s first project to pair turbines with reversible reservoirs. Meanwhile, the 272 MWp Torre Bela solar park outside Azambuja is entering final tests, part of an industry pipeline that totals 23 GW of grid-capacity requests. If even two-thirds of that pipeline clears licensing, Lisbon could meet—and possibly overshoot—the PNEC 2030 renewable target years ahead of schedule.

What shows up on the household bill

For families, the near-term hit is modest but noticeable. The energy regulator ERSE says the tarifa regulada for electricity will edge up 2.1 % in 2025, yet a VAT tweak means the lower 6 % rate now covers the first 200 kWh each month. A typical couple using 1 900 kWh a year faces an extra €0.65 before tax, but the VAT break could shave about €0.80 off the final invoice. Gas tariffs rise 1.5 % from October, adding €0.21–€0.36 per month for standard domestic brackets. In other words, using more power will still cost more, but policy is cushioning the blow for average households.

The bigger picture: autonomy versus exposure

Portugal’s bet on domestic renewables is paying off in emissions cuts and lower import bills. Yet the record demand of 2025 has underscored two vulnerabilities: dependence on maritime LNG and the limits of Iberian interconnectors. Energy economists argue that accelerating pumped-storage upgrades and community solar could reduce both headaches, allowing the country to cover as much as 80 % of its electricity with renewables next year—provided the winter is mild and LNG markets stay calm. Until then, consumers would do well to monitor usage, shop around for contracts and keep an eye on the weather forecast; in today’s Portugal, rainfall and wind speeds can sway a utility bill almost as much as Brussels or Lisbon.