Portugal’s fuel pumps are unlikely to spring any sudden surprises this week, yet officials in Lisbon are on alert. Government figures acknowledge that the jump in crude prices following fresh Middle-East hostilities could still reach motorists’ wallets in the coming weeks, even if Portugal’s Atlantic-leaning supply chain offers a partial cushion.

A quick primer for newcomers

Anyone who has just unpacked boxes in Lisbon, Porto or the Algarve soon discovers that motoring costs are dominated by energy taxes. Roughly 3/5ths of every euro paid at the pump flows straight to the Treasury, not to oil companies. That fiscal reality means international price swings rarely translate one-for-one into the cost of filling up the tank, but they do seep through.

Turbulence in the oil market

Brent crude has climbed back to the upper-70s per barrel after a volley of drone and missile strikes between Iran and Israel reignited supply fears. While that price is well below the triple-digit peaks seen in 2022, the rebound erased much of this spring’s easing. Analysts caution that a prolonged clash could lift futures further, dragging European diesel and petrol benchmarks with it.

What the cabinet is saying

Speaking after last week’s Council of Ministers, Presidency minister António Leitão Amaro stressed that no formal decision has been taken on new relief measures. Finance minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento echoed the message from Luxembourg, where he attended the EU’s Ecofin meeting: the situation is being “closely monitored” and cabinet will intervene “if necessary”. For now, the assessment is that Portuguese supply—sourced largely from the North Sea, West Africa and Brazil under long-term contracts—reduces the risk of physical shortages.

How retail prices are built

Even without fresh conflict, Portuguese drivers already shoulder some of Europe’s heaviest fuel levies. The Imposto sobre Produtos Petrolíferos (ISP) and standard 23 % VAT make taxes the single biggest component of pump prices. Add in the cost of mandatory biofuel blending, strategic oil stocks and transport from Sines or Leixões to inland depots, and only a small slice reflects raw crude. That structure explains why a ten-dollar jump in Brent typically shows up at the forecourt as just a few European cents.

This week’s forecast at the pump

Industry trackers expect no change in regular diesel and a modest two-cent drop in 95-octane petrol between 7 and 13 July. The national average should hover near €1.58 per litre for diesel and €1.67 for unleaded, according to data compiled by the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology. Individual stations remain free to set their own tariffs, so savvy drivers still compare prices—especially in border areas where Spanish pumps can be cheaper.

Tools the state could deploy

Should international prices spike sharply, the government has a handful of levers. Temporary cuts to ISP, as seen in 2022, are the quickest. Officials could also tweak the carbon-tax component or replicate last year’s reimbursement scheme for freight companies. But each measure carries a budgetary cost at a time when Lisbon is pledging fiscal prudence to Brussels.

The medium-term picture

Portugal is banking on renewables and electric mobility to tame its exposure to imported petroleum. Yet with more than three million combustion-engine vehicles still on the road, drivers remain beholden to geopolitics for the foreseeable future. For expatriates planning to buy or import a car, understanding this tax-heavy, market-linked fuel regime is as essential as learning how to navigate a roundabout.

In short, no immediate fuel-price shock is expected this Monday, but the cabinet’s watchful stance underscores how quickly that could change if Middle-East tensions escalate. Keep an eye on the dashboard—and on cabinet press conferences—through July.