Brent Crude Slides to Five-Month Low, Signalling Cheaper Fuel for Portugal

Portugal’s drivers woke up to yet another reminder that crude markets can turn on a dime. After closing above USD 65 barely a week ago, North Sea Brent futures for December delivery slipped 1.55 % overnight, extending a broader slide that left the benchmark hovering near USD 62 this morning—its lowest trade in five months. Analysts blame an uncomfortable cocktail of excess supply, cooling demand expectations and renewed U.S.–China trade friction. For Portuguese households, the immediate impact will be muted by taxes and currency swings, yet a softer Brent tends to filter through to the pump with a short lag.

A rapid slide motorists can’t ignore

The market mood flipped quickly. On 9 October, Brent finished the session at USD 65.22; by 14 October it was probing USD 61–62. In percentage terms, that is a drop of nearly 6 %, wiping out the modest rally that followed late-summer refinery outages in the Gulf of Mexico. Traders point to ICE data showing a surge in speculative short positions and to softer physical differentials for North Sea cargoes. Put simply, barrels are lining up without enough takers, forcing prices lower even as winter approaches.

Why crude keeps losing altitude

A trio of forces is exerting downward pressure. First, the International Energy Agency (IEA) now estimates a 3 million-barrel-per-day surge in 2025 supply, led by the United States, Brazil and Canada. Second, the OPEC+ coalition has begun phasing out earlier voluntary cuts, restoring roughly 1 mb/d in September alone. Finally, the easing of geopolitical risk premiums—thanks to a relatively calm Middle-East corridor and quieter shipping lanes—has removed a layer of price support. Mix in slowing industrial activity in China and euro-zone stagnation, and the demand side offers little relief.

From Sines to Braga: what to expect at the pump

Portuguese fuel prices are pegged not to crude itself but to the international quotations of refined gasoline and diesel, which move in tandem with Brent. The rule of thumb is a one-to-two-week delay before refinery discounts show up on forecourts. If Brent stabilises near USD 62, industry models suggest a potential €0.03–€0.05 per-litre decline in both unleaded and diesel by month-end. However, the final figure will be diluted by the Imposto sobre Produtos Petrolíferos (ISP)—still accounting for about 50 % of the retail price—and by the EUR/USD exchange rate, currently flirting with 1.07.

Taxes, currency and other moving pieces

Even a sharp fall in crude can be blunted if the euro weakens against the dollar, as imported fuel is priced in USD. Moreover, the Portuguese government retains flexibility to adjust ISP brackets if fiscal inflows waver, often smoothing the consumer price curve. Logistics costs, mandatory strategic stock fees and the incremental blending of bio-components further complicate pass-through. In other words, cheaper crude is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a noticeable relief at the pump.

Outlook for the final quarter of 2025

Forecasts remain split. EIA models put Brent at USD 62 on average for Q4, sliding toward the high-50s by spring. J.P. Morgan is slightly more upbeat, banking on USD 66 as OPEC+ reins in supply to defend market share. Meanwhile, Trading Economics’ algorithms predict a mild rebound toward USD 64 by December, citing seasonal heating demand. What unites most projections is the conviction that ample inventories—built up through record seaborne flows of more than 100 million barrels in September—will cap any upside unless a fresh geopolitical shock intervenes.

For now, the best guidance for Portuguese consumers is to watch not only the Brent ticker but also the Forex screen and the Diário da República. Lower crude makes cheaper fuel possible, but only the interplay of tax policy, currency movements and refinery margins determines how much relief actually reaches the nozzle.