Portugal pumps edge higher again even as global oil slips

Foreign motorists who have just started to learn the Portuguese rhythm of weekly fuel swings will need to budget a little extra this week: regular diesel and unleaded 95 petrol are both inching up again, and the upward creep is happening even as crude prices drift lower on the international stage. For newcomers, the jump is tiny—just half a cent per litre—but it is the fourth rise in five weeks and, when layered onto Portugal’s already-high tax burden, it adds up quickly for anyone commuting between beach towns and city offices.

What drivers will actually pay at the pump?

The national energy database updated on Monday shows the average filling-station display reading €1.545 for diesel and €1.697 for 95-octane. Independent forecourts in the interior may post a few cents less, while brand-name stations along the A2 and A5 corridors typically charge a premium that keeps figures hovering above €1.70 for petrol. The Automobile Club’s latest estimate, based on daily wholesale quotes, places the “fair” retail price at €1.542 for diesel and €1.696 for petrol once this week’s adjustments filter through. That means the majority of outlets have already baked the increase into their electronic boards.

Why prices keep drifting higher despite cheaper oil

Internationally, both Brent and West Texas Intermediate have slipped below $70 a barrel, with traders citing fragile demand projections and a fragile cease-fire in Eastern Europe. One might expect Portuguese pumps to mirror that softness, yet several structural quirks intervene. First, finished fuel in Iberia tracks the Mediterranean gasoline and diesel benchmarks rather than raw crude. Second, shipping costs and biofuel blending fees—both quoted in dollars—have risen in 2025. Finally, €-denominated taxes act as a floor: once crude and wholesale margins shrink, the tax slice grows in percentage terms, muting any relief the consumer might feel.

The tax cushion everyone talks about

Lisbon is still applying its so-called almofada fiscal, a temporary cut in the Imposto sobre Produtos Petrolíferos and a refund of the extra VAT windfall generated when prices spike. That cushion, refreshed each quarter, currently subtracts roughly 27 cents per litre from petrol and 21 cents from diesel compared with the statutory rate. Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento has hinted that the scheme will last only as long as international markets remain volatile. Analysts therefore warn expats against assuming today’s discount is permanent: without it, pump prices would jump by the equivalent of two complete weekly paycheques for an average Lisbon commuter in a month.

How Portugal stacks up against Spain and the EU

Even with the cushion, the Comissão Europeia’s Weekly Oil Bulletin ranks Portugal among the 10 most expensive countries for road fuel in the bloc. In the second quarter, unleaded 95 was 9 cents above the EU-27 average and diesel 8 cents higher. Cross-border shoppers who fill up in Badajoz or Galicia save about €3-€5 on a full tank, although longer drives can wipe out the benefit. The gap, regulators note, stems almost entirely from higher consumption taxes rather than retail margins.

Outlook for early September: hint of relief?

Market data collected by the energy authority suggest diesel could plateau in the first week of September while petrol may slip by 1.5 cents, provided current wholesale offers hold and the government keeps the fiscal cushion intact. The sentiment among wholesalers is mixed: some point to weaker refinery runs in the Mediterranean that could tighten supply, others to flagging Chinese demand that may cap prices. Expat motorists should therefore treat any early-September dip as “welcome but possibly brief.”

Practical ways newcomers can keep fuel costs under control

• Sign up for supermarket loyalty programmes; discounts of 6–10 cents per litre are common on Thursdays.• Keep tyres at the manufacturer’s recommended pressure—under-inflation can add 3% to fuel consumption.• Use Portugal’s Apsi app or the DGEG website to compare nearby stations in real time.• Opt for the inland IP routes instead of toll motorways where possible; steady speeds under 110 km/h burn less.• If your residency plans are long-term, consider a plug-in hybrid; fiscal incentives reduce registration tax by up to €4,500.

Staying informed—and adjusting driving habits—remains the single best defence against Portugal’s frequent, if modest, pump-price surprises.