Europe's Defense Shift Forces Portugal to Reckon with Rising Military Costs

France's top military commander has warned that "open war" with Russia remains his foremost concern, a statement that underscores the dramatic shift in Europe's security posture and carries direct implications for Portugal's role within the European Union and NATO. General Fabien Mandon, Chief of the French General Staff, told lawmakers this week that the Russian military threat on the continent requires France to accelerate its defense buildup, including the development of a new supersonic missile called Stratus designed to neutralize enemy air defenses.

Why This Matters:

• European defense budgets are surging, with the EU allocating €800B over the next four years to reduce military dependence on the United States—an investment that will affect Portugal's defense obligations and fiscal priorities.

• Russia's active-duty force is projected to reach 1.9M soldiers by 2030, nearly triple the size of all EU standing armies combined, raising questions about collective security commitments.

• France is pivoting to a war economy, a model that could pressure smaller NATO members like Portugal to increase defense spending beyond the current 2% GDP target.

• The Stratus missile program involves multinational cooperation between France, the UK, and Italy, signaling deeper European defense integration that Portugal may be asked to join or support financially.

The Strategic Calculation Behind France's Alarm

General Mandon's testimony before the French National Assembly was blunt. He cited intelligence projections showing Russia will field 1.3M soldiers in 2025, a figure expected to climb to 1.9M by 2030. The number of Russian heavy tanks is forecast to nearly double from 4,000 to 7,000 over the same period, while the Russian Navy will maintain between 230 and 240 warships. "This is not a dogmatic position," Mandon insisted. "It is based on solid research."

The French military leadership frames the threat in stark terms: Ukrainians have been resisting heroically since 2022, and the conflict is no longer a distant crisis but a continental emergency. Mandon stressed that France must adapt to remain well-defended, particularly as American priorities diverge from those of Europe. The implication is clear—European nations, including Portugal, can no longer rely on Washington's security umbrella to the same extent as during the Cold War.

The Portugal Ministry of Defense has not issued a public response to Mandon's remarks, but Lisbon is already feeling the pressure. Portugal currently spends approximately 1.55% of GDP on defense, below the NATO benchmark, and has faced scrutiny from Brussels and allied capitals for lagging behind in military modernization. As France ramps up its defense posture, smaller EU states will be expected to contribute proportionally to collective security initiatives, whether through troop deployments, equipment purchases, or financial contributions to joint programs.

France's War Footing and the Stratus Missile

In response to the perceived Russian threat, the French government has proposed an additional €36B in military spending between 2024 and 2030, on top of the €413B already allocated under the current Military Programming Law (LPM). This represents a fundamental shift toward what Paris openly calls a "war economy." The strategy prioritizes restocking arsenals, with France aiming to quadruple its inventory of kamikaze drones by 2030 and launching a voluntary military enlistment program targeting 50,000 recruits by 2035.

One of the most ambitious elements of the French plan is the Stratus missile family, a joint project with the United Kingdom and Italy managed by defense contractor MBDA. According to defense industry analysts, the program includes two variants:

• Stratus LO (Low Observability): A subsonic, stealth cruise missile for deep-strike missions, anti-ship operations, and suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD). It will replace aging Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles.

• Stratus RS (Rapid Strike): A supersonic, highly maneuverable missile optimized for anti-ship combat and targeting high-value air assets like AWACS aircraft.

Both missiles are expected to enter service in the early 2030s and will be integrated into French Rafale fighters and naval platforms. The Stratus RS is particularly relevant to Mandon's testimony—it is explicitly designed to neutralize enemy air defenses, a capability France views as essential in any future high-intensity conflict with Russia.

For Portugal, the Stratus program represents a potential development area. Lisbon's defense industry, which includes shipbuilding and aerospace components, could explore involvement in cross-border partnerships as European defense supply chains deepen. NATO allies will continue working through established consultation mechanisms to determine how each member nation contributes to collective defense initiatives.

What This Means for Portugal and Southern Europe

Portugal occupies a unique position in this emerging security architecture. While geographically distant from the Russian threat compared to Poland or the Baltic states, Portugal's Atlantic and Mediterranean coastlines are critical to NATO's southern flank and the defense of maritime supply routes. In the event of a broader European conflict, Portuguese airbases and ports—such as Lajes Field in the Azores—would become vital logistical hubs for U.S. and European forces.

The European Union's €800B "Rearm Europe" initiative, announced in March 2025, aims to achieve full defense readiness by 2030. This plan includes the creation of a 100,000-strong joint European rapid reaction force. NATO members, including Portugal, are expected to coordinate on contributions through alliance frameworks and existing consultation structures.

Domestically, Portugal's government faces budget considerations as defense spending trends across the EU increase. The current NATO benchmark of 2% of GDP remains the established target, with Portugal's current spending at 1.55%. Defense policy decisions will likely be shaped through ongoing EU and NATO discussions on shared security priorities.

The shift toward a "war economy" model in France—prioritizing ammunition production, drone manufacturing, and joint arms deals with Ukraine—could create new opportunities for European defense industrial cooperation. Portugal's defense sector may find openings in cross-border partnerships, though expansion would depend on policy decisions made through proper legislative and government channels.

The Broader European Response

France is not alone in its alarm. EU member states increased defense spending by 30% in 2024, reaching approximately €343B (1.9% of EU GDP), with projections suggesting €381B (2.1% of GDP) in 2025. Germany announced plans to make the Bundeswehr "the strongest conventional army in Europe," potentially raising its defense budget to 3.5% of GDP in the medium term. Poland and the Baltic states, which share borders with Russia, are fortifying public shelters and investing heavily in civil defense.

The NATO alliance as a whole is moving toward collective spending targets, with member nations working to strengthen defense capabilities. For Portugal, ongoing discussions within NATO and the EU will shape how defense spending priorities evolve in the coming years.

At the same time, Brussels is preparing Europeans for evolving security challenges through policy frameworks and civil defense coordination. The White Paper on European Defense, published in March 2025, outlines plans for strengthening EU defense capabilities and border security. Portugal's Atlantic islands—particularly the Azores and Madeira—are recognized as strategically important within NATO frameworks for air and naval coordination.

Russian Capabilities and the Risk of Miscalculation

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree in March 2026 to expand the regular army to nearly 2.4M soldiers, up from 1.5M under a previous order. Russian defense spending in 2025 reached $186B (7.3% of GDP), with the 2026 budget projected at 12.93 trillion rubles (roughly 30% of state expenditure). Moscow is also deepening military cooperation with North Korea, China, and Iran to offset shortages caused by Western sanctions.

However, analysts note that Russia's defense-industrial base faces significant challenges, including declining production of critical munitions and reliance on foreign suppliers. The Kremlin's ability to sustain a prolonged, high-intensity conflict remains uncertain, particularly if European sanctions on metals, cryptocurrency operators, and crude oil exports continue to tighten.

For Portugal, the broader context is clear: European security challenges require coordinated responses through established NATO and EU frameworks. As France, Germany, and other major EU powers strengthen their defense capabilities, smaller nations like Portugal will continue participating in collective defense structures and consulting with allies on their appropriate contributions to shared security priorities.