Former Penguin chief sees "analog tsunami" bringing readers back to books
A former chief executive of one of the world's largest publishing groups says a wave of fatigue with social media is driving readers back to physical books. Markus Dohle, who led Penguin Random House until 2022, told a publishing conference in Lisbon that an "analog tsunami" is rolling toward the industry — and publishers should be ready to meet it.
Speaking at Book 2.0, organized by the Portuguese Publishers and Booksellers Association at the Centro Cultural de Belém, Dohle said people are beginning to recognize that endless scrolling on social platforms does not make them happier. Instead, they are seeking out real communities and shared experiences.
Young readers lead the shift
The change is most visible among young people, who are turning reading into a social activity around festivals, book fairs and communities. Dohle said he has "never seen anything like it," particularly the enthusiasm for romance and fantasy genres.
Young readers are willing to spend more on books, attend events and buy luxury editions, he noted. The trend has been summed up in the phrase "ler é sexy" — reading is sexy — said Clara Capitão, director-general of Penguin Random House Portugal, who joined Dohle in conversation.
The challenge now, Capitão said, is turning what is fashionable among adolescents into a lasting habit. Dohle agreed the question should not be "when will this end?" but rather "how do we extend it?"
The Portuguese market reflects this global picture. In 2024, readers aged 15 to 24 showed the strongest growth in reading levels, jumping from 58% to 76%. Among 18-to-24-year-olds, 39% reported reading more than 10 books a year, and 23% exceeded 20 titles — figures far higher than other age groups.
Book sales grow despite digital fatigue
Portugal's book market has grown steadily in recent years. Sales reached €204 million in 2024, a 9% increase from the previous year, and climbed to €217.5 million in 2025. The first quarter of 2026 saw a further 2.6% rise, with more than 3.2 million books sold.
Physical books remain the preferred format. In 2024, between 81% and 92% of Portuguese readers chose print, and among those aged 15 to 24, preference for physical books stands at 84%.
Yet the second quarter of 2026 marked the first sales decline since the pandemic, falling nearly 2% compared with the same period in 2025 — even with the Lisbon Book Fair, an event that typically boosts the market.
Artificial intelligence as opportunity and risk
Dohle rejected any simple opposition between technology and books. When asked about artificial intelligence, he said it could be an opportunity to connect books with technology and reach readers who are "thirsty for the next good read." Readers still need publishers to guide them and bookshops to deliver books, he added.
Later in the conference, Joan Tarrida, executive director of Galaxia Gutenberg, acknowledged AI's potential but warned of risks in translation. Literal translation errors can damage a publisher's credibility, he said. Alessandra Carra of the Feltrinelli Group pointed to copyright concerns, though she highlighted AI's ability to process data and help editors make decisions based on consumption and sales figures.
Portuguese publishers have been debating these tensions. Some worry that machine translation cannot capture an author's voice, irony or literary nuance. Others see AI as a tool to handle technical tasks, freeing professionals for more creative work. The National Agenda for Artificial Intelligence, launched for 2026–2030, includes plans to address ethics and responsibility in the field.
A call to change the narrative on reading
Emma House, a British publishing specialist, argued that the way reading is promoted must change. Instead of telling people that reading is important and good for them, she said, the message should be that it gives pleasure. "We have to change the narrative around reading," she told the conference, suggesting that people need to feel there is a book and an experience out there for them.
Building a reading ecosystem, speakers said, requires cooperation between the state, the book sector, schools and families. Measures could include coordinated policies across education, culture, health and tourism, tax incentives, vouchers, support for bookshops and libraries, and better access to books.
Portugal has been working on this through its National Reading Plan, known as PNL2027. Programs such as "10 Minutos a Ler" — which challenges schools to include daily reading moments — and reading clubs have been expanded for the 2026–2027 school year. The government also announced the creation of more than 430 libraries in first-cycle schools during 2026, an investment of about €3 million.
Dohle pointed to concerning PISA results on youth literacy skills. Rather than accept negative indicators, he said, governments should treat them as a "call to action" — improving literature education in schools and starting early to form better readers.
The President of the Republic echoed that sentiment in September 2026, calling for a renewed push in education policies for reading and saying the country should not resign itself to declining literacy rates.
The Book 2.0 conference runs through Wednesday at the Centro Cultural de Belém in Lisbon.
