France's €72.8B Nuclear Push: What It Could Mean for Energy Costs in Portugal

The French Government has doubled down on nuclear energy as the centerpiece of its sovereignty strategy, warning that fossil-fuel reliance leaves nations exposed to geopolitical coercion in an era of supply shocks.

Why This Matters

• Oil price pressures: Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven crude prices upward, threatening household budgets and inflation across Europe.

• Energy autonomy: France plans to cut fossil-fuel imports, which cost the country €64B in 2024, to zero by 2050.

• Job creation: The nuclear push is projected to generate up to 1.4M European jobs by the mid-2030s.

France Pushes Nuclear as Geopolitical Shield

Speaking at the second International Nuclear Energy Summit in Paris—co-hosted by France and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—President Emmanuel Macron framed the technology as a defense against external pressure. "When you are too dependent on hydrocarbons, it becomes an element of pressure and destabilization," Macron told delegates, according to EFE and AFP reports.

The summit convened as global energy markets face volatility from ongoing geopolitical instability. Middle Eastern tensions have raised concerns about oil supply stability and global energy costs, reviving inflationary fears that policymakers had hoped were behind them.

Macron's pitch rests on a triangulated promise: energy sovereignty, carbon neutrality by 2050, and economic competitiveness. "In every country that produces nuclear power, energy independence increases," he said, adding that the sector will drive industrial growth and employment across member states.

The €72.8B Reactor Programme

The rhetoric is backed by concrete commitments. France has authorized the construction of six new EPR2 pressurized-water reactors, with another eight under study—a potential fleet expansion of 14 units by 2035. State-owned Électricité de France (EDF) estimates the cost for the initial six at €72.8B.

According to industry projections, construction is scheduled to begin in 2028, with subsequent units expected to follow at regular intervals. EDF projects improvements in unit costs between the first and subsequent reactors, banking on standardized design and supply-chain optimization.

Yet the track record of previous large reactor projects raises questions about timelines. Critics point to construction challenges, regulatory reviews, and skilled labor shortages as potential obstacles to France's timeline.

Small Modular Reactors and the Nuward Initiative

Alongside large reactors, Macron has championed small modular reactors (SMRs), which he argues can be standardized for improved safety and efficiency. France has launched multiple SMR projects, with Nuward among them. The government has allocated funding through the France Relance stimulus programme for nuclear research and development. The European Commission has also unveiled an SMR strategy targeting deployment in the early 2030s, with pledges to support private capital flows into advanced reactor technologies.

Potential Implications for Portugal Residents

For people living in Portugal, the French nuclear expansion could have several potential implications worth monitoring:

Electricity interconnection: Iberian power grids are connected to France via cross-border cables. Increased French nuclear output could potentially influence wholesale electricity prices in the common European market, which may affect bills in Portugal if regional generation patterns shift.

Energy market effects: A more self-sufficient France could influence broader EU energy market dynamics and competition for liquefied natural gas supplies, which Portugal uses for electricity generation during peak demand periods.

Business opportunities: Portugal-based engineering and construction firms may have opportunities to participate in nuclear-sector supply chains or projects as Europe's nuclear capacity expands.

Energy policy considerations: If global oil markets remain volatile, the stability of baseload nuclear power across Europe could affect Portugal's long-term energy strategy and cost management. France's nuclear expansion represents one element in Europe's broader energy diversification efforts.

Europe's Nuclear Divergence

While France accelerates, the continent remains split. Germany shut its final three reactors in April 2023 and has taken a different energy path. Meanwhile, Poland is advancing nuclear projects, Sweden has committed to supporting new reactor development, and the Netherlands has allocated funding for new units.

The United Kingdom has announced regulatory reforms to expedite advanced reactor approvals. Even Italy, which abandoned nuclear in 1990, has approved a legal framework to resume research and training. The Czech Republic and Finland are extending reactor lifespans and supporting new builds.

Public sentiment is shifting. Polling across the EU shows rising acceptance of nuclear as a climate tool, particularly among younger voters who view it as complementary to wind and solar.

Risks and Roadblocks

France's programme faces material obstacles:

• Regulatory processes: Nuclear projects require rigorous regulatory approval and oversight, which historically can extend timelines.

• Radioactive waste: Long-term storage remains a complex technical and policy challenge.

• Climate resilience: Changing environmental conditions can affect power plant operations and require ongoing adaptation.

• Capital requirements: Large-scale nuclear projects require substantial investment and financing.

The Strategic Calculation

Macron's argument is ultimately about energy security as much as technical innovation. By framing nuclear as a path to reduced dependence on imported hydrocarbons, he positions France as working toward greater energy autonomy within Europe.

Whether new nuclear projects deliver as planned will determine if this strategic vision becomes reality. For now, the French position is that expanding low-carbon nuclear capacity is essential to European energy security and economic competitiveness.

Europe's Evolving Energy Strategy

The European Commission has elevated nuclear's role in Europe's energy transition. Multiple member states are advancing nuclear projects as part of their climate and energy security strategies. France's existing reactor fleet already produces a significant share of its domestic electricity, and the expansion represents France's commitment to this path.

Across the continent, countries from Poland to Sweden to the Czech Republic are making their own nuclear commitments as part of broader energy security strategies.

Even in Portugal, where nuclear remains a sensitive policy topic, energy planners are monitoring developments in neighboring Spain and France. As Europe's energy landscape evolves, Portugal's policymakers will need to consider how cross-border electricity flows and the continent's energy mix affect long-term domestic energy planning and costs.

The broader context is clear: energy security has become a central strategic concern across Europe. For Macron and other nuclear-committed leaders, expanding low-carbon baseload capacity is viewed as essential infrastructure for the decades ahead.