Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived in New Delhi for the 18th BRICS summit, marking his first major international appearance since the International Criminal Court warrant complicated his travel to non-member states. The three-day visit, which includes a closed-door meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday, will focus on expanding bilateral trade to US$100 billion by 2030 and potentially finalizing India's acquisition of Russian Su-57 stealth fighter jets—a deal that could reshape the military balance in South Asia.
Why This Matters
• Defence negotiations could see India acquire up to 60 fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jets with full technology transfer, strengthening its position against regional rivals.
• Trade target of US$100 billion by 2030 includes nuclear energy, steel, critical minerals, and fertilizer cooperation.
• Expanded BRICS membership now includes Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iran, shifting the bloc's focus toward energy security and Middle Eastern geopolitics.
• Brazilian President Lula's absence due to upcoming elections means Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira will represent Portugal's key South American partner.
A Summit Transformed: Energy Giants Reshape the Bloc
What was once a loose coalition of emerging economies has become something far more consequential. The formal inclusion of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran as full members has fundamentally altered the strategic calculus of the BRICS grouping. These three nations alone control nearly 20% of global oil reserves, transforming the bloc into a formidable energy axis.
For Portugal, a country dependent on imported energy and deeply tied to Atlantic trade routes, this shift matters. The expanding influence of Gulf states within BRICS creates new diplomatic and economic currents that Lisbon cannot ignore. Energy security discussions in New Delhi this weekend will directly affect fuel prices and supply chains across the Iberian Peninsula.
The theme of this year's summit—"Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability"—reflects India's careful diplomatic choreography. New Delhi must balance its deepening ties with Washington against its historical dependence on Russian military hardware, all while managing relationships with new BRICS members who are regional rivals themselves.
The Putin-Modi Equation: Defence and Trade
Friday's bilateral meeting between Putin and Modi represents the most commercially significant encounter of the summit. Beyond the headline-grabbing Su-57 discussions, the two leaders are expected to finalize agreements on nuclear power plant construction and examine progress toward the US$100 billion trade target established during Modi's visit to Moscow in July 2024.
The Su-57 proposal is particularly notable. Russia has offered India multiple acquisition pathways: direct purchase of 36 to 60 fully assembled aircraft, or joint production using existing Su-30MKI infrastructure within India. More significantly, Moscow has dangled something it rarely offers—unrestricted technology transfer covering avionics, engines, stealth materials, and classified systems.
For the Portuguese defence establishment watching from Lisbon, this signals continued Russian influence in a region where NATO has sought deeper engagement. India's potential acquisition of fifth-generation capabilities, combined with ongoing S-400 air defence system deliveries, complicates Western efforts to build technology-sharing partnerships with New Delhi.
Beyond defence, the bilateral agenda includes cooperation on steel production, critical minerals essential for battery manufacturing, and expanded fertilizer exports—crucial for India's agricultural sector.
Regional Rivals Under One Roof
The diplomatic tightrope extends well beyond the Russia-India relationship. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's presence in New Delhi creates an awkward dynamic given ongoing tensions between Tehran and the Gulf states. Pezeshkian will hold his second meeting with Modi since the Middle East conflict escalated, discussing regional stability and maritime security.
Meanwhile, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi representation bring their own agenda. The challenge for India as host lies in managing these competing interests while maintaining the consensus-based decision-making that defines BRICS governance.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's attendance—his first visit to India since 2019—adds another layer of complexity. The 2020 Himalayan border clash that killed 20 Indian soldiers and 4 Chinese soldiers severely damaged Sino-Indian relations. Recent diplomatic efforts have restored visa issuance, border trade, and direct flights, but trust remains fragile. A potential Xi-Modi bilateral on Saturday, while unconfirmed, would signal genuine progress toward normalization.
What This Means for Portugal and European Partners
Portugal's economic ties to BRICS members are substantial. Brazil remains Portugal's most important partner within the bloc, shaped by shared language, deep business connections, and a community of approximately 500,000 Portuguese citizens residing in Brazil. Lula's absence is therefore noteworthy—domestic electoral pressures less than a month before Brazil's presidential election have kept him in South America, with Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira stepping in.
The expanded BRICS also directly affects European energy markets. With Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iran now at the table, discussions about de-dollarization and alternative payment mechanisms could accelerate. Portugal, like other eurozone nations, has a vested interest in how these conversations unfold. Any shift toward BRICS-based payment systems for energy transactions would ripple through European currency markets and trade finance.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres will address the summit's plenary sessions, advocating for reforms to the UN Security Council and international financial institutions—themes that resonate with BRICS members seeking greater representation in global governance.
Looking Ahead: China Takes the Chair
India will hand the BRICS presidency to China for 2027, meaning Beijing will host next year's gathering. This transition comes as the bloc grapples with an increasingly ambitious agenda: promoting a multipolar world order, developing alternatives to Western-dominated financial systems, and coordinating positions on conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East.
For European nations including Portugal, the trajectory is clear. BRICS is no longer merely a talking shop for emerging economies. It has evolved into a platform where energy policy, defence trade, and geopolitical realignment intersect. The agreements reached—or merely discussed—in New Delhi this weekend will shape global markets that Portugal depends upon.
