Galp’s 54% Gas Surge and 2% Oil Rise Bolster Portugal’s Energy Security

Portugal-based energy group Galp has quietly lifted both oil and gas output in the final quarter of 2025, a move that cushions the country against volatile international supply and opens a fresh window of opportunity for local investors.

Why This Matters

Bigger domestic stake in hydrocarbons

Oil volumes rose 2% while natural-gas sales rocketed 54%.

Jobs & procurement

Ongoing work at the Sines refinery and the new Bacalhau FPSO keeps thousands of Portuguese subcontractors busy.

Share-price momentum

Galp shares climbed roughly €2 in the first five weeks of 2026 on analyst upgrades.

Energy bills

More gas in Galp’s portfolio could limit winter price spikes for households on indexed tariffs.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

The company averaged 113,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) between October and December, edging up from 110,000 a year earlier. Crude still accounts for 87% of the mix, but the outlier is gas: volumes sold to European clients jumped by more than half, thanks largely to short-term trading gains.

That surge offsets a softer international Brent market, where prices fell about 15% year-on-year to US$64.

How Galp Pulled It Off

Bacalhau first oil

The floating platform off Brazil began producing in October, quickly adding high-margin barrels.

Namibia positioning

A late-December farm-in to the Vénus discovery sets the stage for medium-term growth but is already boosting the company’s reserve line.

Trading desks on overdrive

Warmer-than-expected European weather let Galp arbitrage storage gas into spot sales, explaining the 54% spike.

Money Matters

Even with more molecules coming out of the ground, headline profits remain at the mercy of downstream hiccups. A planned turnaround at Sines cut refinery runs by 56%, though a 32% jump in unit margins partially softened the blow. Renewable revenue also dipped as Iberian power prices lost 30%.

Galp will publish full audited figures on 2 March, but preliminary guidance points to stable cash flow, helped by Bacalhau barrels that cost well under US$20 each to lift.

Market Reaction

JPMorgan upgraded the stock to “overweight” in early February, praising Galp’s “incomparable long-life assets” in Brazil and Namibia. From €14.70 on 5 January the shares closed at €16.94 on 3 February, and some desks now talk of €18 before Easter.

What This Means for Residents

Households in Portugal often forget that a domestic champion can translate into real-world benefits:

Fuel-price buffer – Extra barrels give Galp negotiating power with cartel suppliers, which can soften diesel and petrol swings at the pump.

Industrial orders – Maintenance at Sines and hydrogen upgrades imply steady work for metal-engineers from Setúbal to Porto.

Green hydrogen rollout – The 100 MW electrolysis park nearing completion could cover up to 20% of Sines’ grey hydrogen needs, nudging Portugal toward its 2030 climate pledges and, ultimately, lowering the carbon cost embedded in consumer products.

Dividend potential – Stronger free cash flow keeps the dividend yield above 5%, an attractive line item for anyone holding Portuguese-listed equities in a PPR or retirement fund.

The Road Ahead

• 2 March earnings call – Watch for management guidance on achieving 105-110 kboe/d for full-year 2026.

• Downstream shake-up – Lisbon is expected to rule on a potential merger between Galp’s service-station network and Spain’s Moeve this spring.

• Namibia drill campaign – Three appraisal wells at the Mopane structure could redefine Galp’s long-term production curve.

For now, the uptick in barrels and cubic metres provides a modest but timely cushion for Portugal’s energy balance sheet, while giving ordinary investors one of the few domestic plays that still prints double-digit cash yields.