Facing Russia’s Threat, Portugal Gears Up Its Military and Ammo Output

The prospect of an open confrontation between Europe and Russia, once dismissed as remote, has suddenly moved from academic debate to urgent policy talk after former European Commission president José Manuel Durão Barroso warned that the European Union must be ready "for the worst‐case scenario". His remarks, delivered earlier this week at a private security forum in Brussels, resonate loudly in Portugal, where defence has rarely occupied centre stage yet where the country’s Atlantic geography would place it on the Alliance’s frontline supply chain.

A seasoned voice sounds the alarm

Durão Barroso—Portugal’s former prime minister and the only Portuguese citizen ever to lead the European Commission—told an invite-only audience that “deterrence only works if the adversary believes you are prepared to fight.” Pointing to Russia’s grinding assault on Ukraine, he argued that the EU’s credibility depends on concrete steps: higher defence spending, accelerated joint procurement of ammunition, and a standing rapid-reaction force able to deploy within days. The veteran official linked Europe’s security directly to Lisbon’s own interests, noting that under the Atlantic Alliance treaty an attack on one member “would inevitably draw Portugal in, whether the opening shots fall on the Baltic, the Black Sea or the Arctic.” His intervention comes as Brussels finalises a multiyear €100 billion fund meant to synchronise arms production across the bloc, with France and Germany pushing Portugal and other smaller states to commit more funds.

What readiness means in Lisbon

Portuguese defence planners privately admit that the country’s current arsenal—centred on light infantry, offshore patrol vessels and six German-built Leopard 2A6 tanks—would offer “symbolic” resistance against a peer military power. Still, the Defence Ministry insists that Portugal can make a decisive contribution through its submarine flotilla, the Sintra-based cyberwarfare centre, and its strategic airlift squadron stationed at Figo Maduro. Parliament last month adopted a 2026 budget that nudges military outlays to 1.55 % of GDP, up from 1.48 % this year, but still below the NATO guideline of 2 %. The opposition Social Democrats seized on Barroso’s comments to demand faster progress, whereas the governing Socialists caution that new money must come with safeguards against cost overruns that plagued past purchases of NH-90 helicopters and KC-390 transports.

Industry races to catch up

Europe’s capacity to translate political will into hardware remains the central question. Barroso highlighted the stark comparison between Russia’s ability to produce more than 1 million artillery shells annually and the EU’s current output of roughly 600 000. Portuguese engineers at Benavente’s Nammo plant have already added night shifts to meet NATO contracts, but executives say they need longer-term guarantees from Brussels before doubling capacity. Beyond munitions, Portugal’s shipyards in Viana do Castelo are bidding for a slice of the forthcoming European Patrol Corvette programme, which could keep local employment steady while modernising the navy. Defence analysts warn, however, that inflated global demand for semiconductors, composite armour and thermal optics may delay deliveries well into the next decade.

Diplomatic levers still matter

Even as he urged vigilance, Barroso did not dismiss diplomacy. He advocated a dual-track approach—"strength and dialogue"—arguing that sustained pressure can push Moscow toward a negotiated exit from Ukraine while preparing Europe should talks fail. Portuguese foreign minister João Gomes Cravinho echoed that message yesterday, telling reporters that “our best weapon is unity, and unity requires credible defence on one hand and an open channel of communication on the other.” Lisbon continues to back European sanctions but maintains a small embassy staff in Moscow for consular purposes and intelligence gathering. Meanwhile, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is expected to raise security cooperation when he attends the COP 30 climate summit in Belém do Pará next month, where Brazil’s diplomatic weight could prove useful in persuading emerging economies not to break sanctions.

Public mood and political cross-currents

A recent Eurobarometer survey found that 67 % of Portuguese respondents regard Russia as "a major threat"—10 points higher than the EU average—but fewer than half support mandatory conscription. That tension complicates any conversation about expanding the army beyond its current professional force of roughly 29 000 troops. On social media, Barroso’s comments triggered a flank of criticism from far-left activists who accuse Brussels of manufacturing hysteria to justify higher defence budgets, while conservative commentators welcomed the warning as a belated reality check. Yet across mainstream parties a consensus appears to be forming: Portugal’s security is inseparable from the broader European project, and preparing for extreme contingencies is no longer optional.

In the corridors of power, the question is no longer whether to act, but how fast Lisbon can shift from rhetoric to tangible capabilities before the next shock rattles the continent.