Portugal’s defence chiefs vow 8,000 troops and new air shield by 2025

Portugal’s top brass say the country has little time to plug two shortfalls at once: people and protection from the sky. Around 8,000 additional service members and a new layer of medium- and high-altitude air-defence are being treated as twin priorities, with money already earmarked to make both happen.

Why this matters now

After years of lean defence budgets, Lisbon has committed to hit 2 % of GDP for defence in 2025, four years sooner than first planned. That promise turns abstract targets into immediate questions: Who will operate the incoming equipment, and how will Portugal shield its airspace beyond low altitude? The answers will influence everything from the country’s leverage inside NATO to the security of commercial air corridors over the Atlantic.

The numbers behind the manpower gap

Portugal’s Armed Forces currently count just under 28,000 uniformed personnel. The legal ceiling hovers around 36,000, but defence headquarters reckon an effective strength of 35,000–36,000 is the minimum needed once new platforms start arriving. Filling the gap means:• 8,000 extra recruits in the next four to five years.• A focus on technically skilled profiles able to operate drones, cyber-security suites and air-defence batteries.• Retention tools—better pay scales and housing allowances—to stop the loss of mid-career NCOs.

Radar gaps in the Portuguese sky

For now, the country can intercept threats flying low, but everything above roughly 5,000 m is a blind spot. Defence Minister Nuno Melo has confirmed plans to buy a low-/medium-altitude shield while acknowledging that systems such as the Patriot remain out of reach. The upgrade path under the Military Programming Law (2023-2034) points to:

• Thales ForceShield Compact launchers teamed with STARStreak and LMM missiles.

• Participation in the European Sky Shield Initiative, giving access to a shared European medium-range umbrella.

• Connection of the new batteries to NATO’s Integrated Air and Missile Defence architecture.

Money, deadlines and the shopping list

An extra €1.3 B has been written into the 2025 defence budget, lifting total spending to roughly €5.9 B. Besides air defence, funds will cover CAESAR howitzers, Leopard 2A6 modernisation, a possible Rafale fighter replacement and upgraded naval platforms. Lisbon has also asked Brussels to activate the EU’s SAFE loan facility and is lobbying for a “PRR for defence” to mirror the Recovery and Resilience Plan that financed post-pandemic projects.

Recruiting in a tight labour market

Convincing thousands of tech-savvy Portuguese to swap the private sector for camouflage will not be easy. Defence planners are weighing:

Fast-track enlistment for university graduates in STEM fields.

Part-time reserve contracts allowing civilians to keep their day jobs.

Partnerships with the Coimbra and Porto polytechnics to funnel students into cyber and drone units.The Army is even studying a pilot programme that would let recruits accumulate pension credits at a higher rate during their first five years of service.

What defence analysts are watching

International observers see Portugal’s push as a litmus test for mid-sized NATO members that must balance fiscal prudence with rising security demands. Key questions include:• Can Lisbon meet the 2 % goal without undermining social-welfare spending?• Will domestic industry capture a meaningful share of the new contracts, or will spending flow almost entirely abroad?• How quickly can Portugal integrate into the ESSI network, and will that reduce the need for a standalone Patriot-class system later?

The road to 2 % and beyond

NATO’s fresh guidance now talks about 5 % of GDP on defence by 2035, with 3.5 % devoted to hard capabilities. Government officials say Portugal will “aim to keep pace,” but the Finance Ministry warns the debt trajectory must stay sustainable. Long procurement cycles—Patriot systems can take seven years from order to delivery—mean decisions taken in the next 12 months will shape the force well into the 2030s.

Key takeaways

• 8,000 more troops are required to operate incoming equipment.

• The main capability gap is medium- and high-altitude air defence.

• Spending will jump to €5.9 B in 2025, reaching 2 % of GDP.

• First purchases focus on Thales ForceShield and STARStreak missiles.

• Lisbon is leaning on EU financing tools to soften the budget impact.

• Success hinges on recruitment, retention and domestic industry involvement.