Surge in pancreatic cancer cases places Portugal on alert

Incidence climbing faster than expected

Pancreatic cancer, once considered uncommon in Portugal, is advancing at a pace that worries oncologists. About 1,800 new diagnoses now occur every year – roughly 30 % more than a decade ago – and mortality has already overtaken that of many other tumours. National projections show the disease could rank as the country’s second-deadliest cancer by 2035, with annual deaths topping 2,000 if nothing changes.

A shift toward younger patients

Historically associated with people over 70, the malignancy is increasingly striking adults in their 40s and even late 30s. Specialists from the Portuguese Society of Gastroenterology say lifestyle factors – obesity, processed-food diets, smoking, alcohol misuse and rising diabetes rates – are combining with genetic predisposition to bring forward the average age at diagnosis.

Why survival is still so poor

The five-year survival rate sits at just 13 %. Roughly four out of every five patients are detected when the tumour is already inoperable, eliminating the only treatment with curative intent: surgery. Typical warning signs such as abdominal pain radiating to the back, sudden weight loss and jaundice tend to appear late, giving the cancer time to spread.

Research community pushes for earlier detection

Imaging breakthrough

Scientists at the Botton-Champalimaud Pancreatic Cancer Centre have validated an advanced magnetic-resonance technique that can reveal pre-malignant pancreatic lesions. Published in Investigative Radiology, the work shows non-invasive imaging could become an effective surveillance tool for high-risk groups.

Blood-based markers under the microscope

Portuguese teams collaborating with the international PRECEDE Consortium are analysing fragments of tumour DNA circulating in the bloodstream. Preliminary results discussed at the second Botton-Champalimaud International Pancreatic Cancer Conference indicate that a panel of genetic alterations could flag disease months – perhaps years – before conventional scans.

Artificial intelligence steps in

Engineers from the Universities of Coimbra and Porto, together with INESC TEC, have developed AI models that read imaging studies and endoscopic videos more accurately than the human eye. Early trials show the software can differentiate malignant from benign pancreatic lesions with high sensitivity, giving radiologists and surgeons a crucial head start.

Therapies in the pipeline

One experimental drug that targets mutated KRAS – a gene altered in roughly 95 % of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas – has shrunk tumours by up to 98 % in pre-clinical tests. Cellular immunotherapies and personalised anti-tumour vaccines are also moving through the early phases of human trials at the Champalimaud Centre, where multidisciplinary teams treat patients while running real-time research protocols.

No nationwide screening – yet

Portugal’s National Health Service currently offers population-based screening only for breast, colorectal and cervical cancer. Pancreatic surveillance is limited to a handful of hospital programs that follow families with hereditary risk or chronic pancreatitis. Health-policy planners cite the lack of an affordable, validated test as the main obstacle to a broader initiative, and the draft 2026 budget contains no earmarked funds for such a programme.

What patients and clinicians can do now

• Focus on modifiable risks: maintain a healthy weight, quit smoking, curb alcohol and manage diabetes.• Clinicians should investigate persistent back-to-front abdominal pain, unexplained weight loss or new-onset diabetes in adults over 40.• Relatives of patients with pancreatic cancer or known hereditary syndromes should ask about enrolment in high-risk surveillance clinics.

The bottom line

Portugal faces a looming pancreatic-cancer crisis, but scientific progress is finally carving out a path toward earlier detection and, in some cases, potential cure. Researchers urge swift investment so that the latest imaging, blood tests and AI tools can move from the lab to everyday clinical practice before diagnoses – and deaths – climb even higher.