Too Much on the Plate: Portugal’s 4,000-Calorie Surplus Drives an Obesity Surge

Portugal’s dinner plates are still far too heavy. The latest data from the national statistics office show that the food available in shops and canteens would give every resident a daily average of more than 4,000 calories—about twice what the average adult needs. The composition of that mountain of food has barely changed in a decade, and the country’s health record is beginning to show it.

Four thousand calories on the table

When technicians at INE updated the Balança Alimentar Portuguesa for 2020-2024 they found 4,079 kcal per person per day waiting to be eaten, almost identical to the 4,077 kcal of the previous five-year cycle. Only the first pandemic year, 2020, dipped to 3,894 kcal, the lowest in ten years. For context, the World Health Organization suggests 1,800-2,500 kcal for a healthy adult, depending on age and activity. In other words, Portugal’s food system delivers enough energy to feed a second Portugal of equal size.

Where the imbalance lies

Behind the headline figure is a stubborn skew. The Roda dos Alimentos recommends roughly equal wedges of produce, but INE finds that the “meat, fish and eggs” group sits 12.4 percentage points above target, while vegetables lag 8.1 points and fruit 3.7 points below. Average meat availability rose 2.9 % compared with 2015-2019 to 234 g per capita per day; poultry alone accounts for 40 % of the total. Fish slipped 2.1 % to 60 g, though shellfish bucked the trend with a 20.6 % jump. Milk and dairy fell 3.6 %, cereals edged down 1.2 %, and alcohol soared 10 %, leaving every resident with 121 l of drink a year—52 l of wine and 61 l of beer.

A public-health bill coming due

An overstocked pantry has human costs. The latest Inquérito Nacional de Saúde shows 67.6 % of adults are overweight, and 28.7 % live with obesity. Among children aged 6-8, almost one in three carries excess weight. Diabetes follows closely: more than 900,000 diagnosed cases in 2023, plus thousands who remain unaware of their condition. Health-service economists link these figures to the persistent 4,000-plus-kcal surplus, which feeds a positive energy balance even after accounting for exercise.

Government strategy shifts

Lisbon is not ignoring the warning lights. In March this year the Directorate-General of Health unveiled a three-year “Roadmap to Accelerate Obesity Prevention”, aimed at the first 1,000 days of life, canteens and school menus. A parliamentary resolution now requires crèches to serve meals designed by a registered nutritionist, ban ultra-processed foods, and offer a balanced vegetarian option. The longer-term PNPAS 2022-2030 sets explicit targets: cut processed-meat intake 10 %, raise the share of people eating at least 400 g of fruit and vegetables daily, and boost adherence to the Mediterranean Diet by 20 %.

Neighbours doing better?

Portugal’s calorie availability still exceeds that of its southern peers. Italy’s best estimates put actual consumption around 3,600 kcal, and Spanish studies suggest 2,930 kcal once waste is discounted. Methodologies differ—Portugal counts food before it is spoiled or binned—but the comparison hints that the Lusitanian excess cannot be blamed solely on methodological quirks. Compounding the problem, households here dump about 183 kg of food per person each year, the fourth-highest figure in the EU.

Cutting waste, trimming waistlines

Nutritionists argue that scaling down supply is only half the battle. Tackling food waste—in homes, school cafeterias, and restaurants—could remove a chunk of the phantom calories inflating the BAP totals. Digital menu planning, smaller portion sizes, and pay-what-you-take schemes are being trialled from Braga to Faro. Meanwhile, campaigners call for a fresh fiscal nudge, such as lower VAT on locally grown produce and higher levies on high-sugar snacks. If the twin goals of a slimmer waste bin and a slimmer waistline converge, the next edition of the balance sheet may finally dip below the 4,000-kcal red line.