U.S. Raid in Caracas Splits Portugal’s Presidential Candidates and Raises Expat Concerns

Portugal awoke this weekend to the news that a rapid U.S. special-forces raid in Caracas has removed Nicolás Maduro from power, plunging Venezuela into uncertainty and sparking an unusually sharp debate among the hopefuls for February’s presidential election in Lisbon. While every candidate voiced concern for the estimated 300 000 Portuguese-Venezuelans, agreement ended there: some framed Washington’s move as a breach of international law, others as a long-overdue liberation.

Quick takeaways for readers in Portugal

• Operation began at dawn on 3 January; Maduro is reportedly in U.S. custody.

• Henrique Gouveia e Melo, Catarina Martins, Jorge Pinto condemn the action as illegal.

• André Ventura welcomes the strike, calling it a victory for democracy.

• Government in Lisbon focuses on consular protection and urges calm.

• EU leaders back a peaceful transition but stop short of endorsing the raid.

A fractured political chorus in Lisbon

Former navy admiral Gouveia e Melo told reporters in Sintra that using force without a United Nations mandate “crosses a red line”. The independent candidate warned that accepting ad-hoc interventions risks normalising a world where the “strongest set the rules”. On the opposite flank, Chega’s André Ventura praised the capture of Maduro as “good news for freedom”, arguing that Portuguese-Venezuelans may finally vote and invest without fear. Centrist liberal João Cotrim de Figueiredo struck a middle note: he criticised the absence of multilateral consultation yet urged Lisbon to “double-check every consulate phone line” before apportioning blame. Left-wing contender Catarina Martins insisted that Portugal “doesn’t need Brussels’ permission” to denounce what she views as a violation of the U.N. Charter, while veteran moderate Luís Marques Mendes called for “facts before labels”, putting the emphasis on community safety rather than geopolitics.

Lisbon & Brussels: similar anxieties, different wording

From the Palácio de São Bento, Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel acknowledged that Maduro’s re-election in 2024 lacked legitimacy, yet still described the U.S. raid as “not fully compatible with international law”. The ministry activated an emergency task-force, liaising hourly with the embassy in Caracas and with Spain and Italy—two EU nations that, like Portugal, have large expatriate communities in Venezuela.

Over in Brussels, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated Europe’s desire for a “peaceful, democratic transition” and reminded Washington of the need to respect the U.N. Charter. The bloc extended targeted sanctions against Venezuelan officials last month, but stopped short of endorsing military action.

Legal scholars cry foul

Professors of international law from Coimbra to Rio de Janeiro are almost unanimous: Article 2(4) of the U.N. Charter forbids the use of force except in self-defence or with Security Council approval. None of those boxes was ticked, says jurist Priscila Caneparo, who dismisses Washington’s “narco-state” argument as “politically convenient but legally hollow.” Analysts also draw parallels to the 1989 ousting of Noriega in Panama, warning that precedent now tilts further away from multilateral norms.

Families, remittances and a fragile safety net

About 1 in 5 residents of Madeira and the Algarve have relatives in Venezuela, and the flow of €120 M in annual remittances is vital for many households. For now, consular sources describe the Portuguese community as “calm but stocking up on essentials.” Church parishes in Caracas and Valencia opened their doors to anyone needing shelter, while the Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros dispatched extra staff to process emergency travel documents. The Bank of Portugal is already modelling scenarios in which oil-price spikes collide with a slower-than-expected tourism recovery.

What it means for Portugal’s foreign posture

Politically, the episode pressures Lisbon to square its Atlanticist instincts with an EU that preaches strategic autonomy. If Portugal overtly condemns Washington, it risks friction with its oldest ally; if it stays silent, it fuels domestic accusations of double standards. Economically, a prolonged crisis could disrupt refined-fuel exports and push up energy bills just as winter heating aid expires. Diplomatically, Portugal’s candidacy for a non-permanent U.N. Security Council seat in 2027 may hinge on how credibly it defends the Charter today.

Where do we go from here?

The White House says elections “supervised by the OAS” will be organised within six months—a timetable many observers call ambitious. EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Tuesday; Portugal is expected to propose a contact group including Brazil, Spain and Canada to mediate. Meanwhile, presidential hopefuls will keep Venezuela on the stump, not only because of moral principle but because hundreds of thousands of votes at home have cousins, siblings or savings in Caracas.

For now the watchword is vigilance: the community hotline (+58 212 993 64 20) remains active 24 hrs a day, airlines are assessing security corridors, and both government and opposition forces in Venezuela are weighing their next moves. However the political dust settles, the episode has already thrown a harsh spotlight on the fragile balance between defending democracy abroad and upholding the rule book that underpins global order.