Tariffs Up, Sales Up: Portugal’s September Export Surprise

Portuguese factories have found unexpected breathing room this autumn. September’s trade data reveal that the country not only sidestepped the worst-case fears surrounding Washington’s 15 % tariff ceiling but actually recorded its liveliest export month of the year. Chemical intermediates shipped to Germany led the charge, helping narrow the trade gap even as dearer energy imports continued to rise.

A brisk rebound few had predicted

Investors spent the summer bracing for a chill. When Brussels and the White House unveiled a stop-gap deal in late July, most analysts saw the new tariff cap as a brake on sales across the Atlantic. Instead of deep-freeze, September produced a 14.3 % year-on-year jump in goods exports, a swing of more than 15 percentage points relative to August. The National Statistics Institute confirms that, without the accounting quirk of transactions with no change of ownership, the advance still stood at 3.6 %, a figure that by itself would have been headline news in most years.

Chemicals steal the spotlight

Portugal’s trade balance often lives or dies on the fortunes of cork, textiles and cars. This time the star was industrial supplies, chiefly pharmaceutical precursors and speciality chemicals. They streamed into German warehouses at a pace that surprised even industry lobbyists. Statisticians caution that a slice of that traffic represents processing on commission, yet stripping out those deals still leaves a double-digit expansion of 14.7 % to Germany. Inside the broader chemical universe, generic drug ingredients enjoyed special relief: they qualify for the United States’ most-favoured-nation duty, sparing exporters the full 15 % surcharge.

Import bill refuses to cooperate

The good news arrived with a caveat. Portuguese firms paid sharply more for what they bought abroad, partly because Brent-linked contracts dragged oil and gas costs 40.4 % higher. Even so, the 9.4 % rise in imports was insufficient to wipe out the export boost; the monthly trade deficit slimmed by €59 M compared with August. Strip away those commission transactions, however, and the underlying goods gap widened once more, reminding policymakers how sensitive the ledger remains to every container of crude.

What the agreement really changed

The July pact was sold as a peace offering: a 15 % tariff beats the 30 % hike once threatened by the previous US administration. Still, the new rate represents a steep climb from the average 2.5 % duties Portuguese firms had become accustomed to. For metal-mechanical manufacturers, facing 15 % on finished goods and up to 50 % on steel and aluminium, September brought little relief. Chemical exporters, by contrast, received an escape hatch for generic pharmaceuticals that many now see as a model for other niches seeking softer treatment in future rounds.

Voices from Lisbon and Porto

Trade agency AICEP strikes a cautiously upbeat tone. Its economists say the September snap-back suggests companies have space to adapt, though they warn that keeping the momentum will require "adding value rather than chasing volume". At the Bank of Portugal, forecasters still pencil in 2 % GDP growth for 2025, tempered by the risk that the United States could revisit harsher protectionist measures after next year’s election cycle.

The road ahead

Corporate strategists now face a delicate balancing act. They must protect thin margins in North America while satisfying German demand for greener, higher-spec chemicals. Energy-hungry factories remain exposed to volatile import prices, yet the commerce ministry believes diversification—both of markets and of product sophistication—can keep trade in surplus territory. If September’s figures represent more than a one-off blip, Portugal may finish 2025 with exports accounting for almost 50 % of GDP, a goal long touted but never quite reached. The next three months will tell whether the autumn surge was the start of a lasting growth cycle or merely a well-timed sprint before new headwinds gather.