Shorter Qualifiers, Bigger Risks: How UEFA’s Plan Hits Portugal

For months, whispers around UEFA’s corridors have pointed to an overhaul that could redraw the road to every European Championship and World Cup. In plain terms, the organisation wants to replace routine, lopsided qualifying nights with fixtures that keep broadcasters tuned in, smaller nations hopeful and clubs less agitated over congested schedules. For Portugal, where memories of slipped play-off nerves remain fresh, the coming redesign could determine whether the Seleção coasts through or sweats until the final matchday.

Portugal’s stake in the reshuffle

The Federação Portuguesa de Futebol has quietly lobbied in Nyon for a format that preserves home-and-away prestige at Estádio da Luz, protects match-day revenues for mid-table federations and still gives Cristiano Ronaldo’s heirs a direct route to every major finals. Insiders say Lisbon officials view the current 12-group layout as workable, but they fear that a deeper Nations League integration could force Portugal into knock-out traps in March, exactly when domestic clubs chase trophies. The FPF’s finance department, wary of losing the €60 M annual broadcast package attached to qualifiers, argues that short, high-risk play-offs would make revenues volatile. Yet the federation also recognises that repeated 6-0 strolls against San Marino offer little commercial punch for global audiences.

Two contrasting blueprints under discussion

UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin has ordered his competition team to present, by spring, two distinct pathways. The first keeps the familiar twelve-group grid but tightens it: four-team groups across the board, September kick-off, November conclusion, March play-offs only for runners-up. The alternative is more radical: a qualifying process flowing directly from the Nations League pyramid, with promotion and relegation determining who still has a mathematical shot at the finals. This model promises fewer double-digit thrashings, a clearer storyline for broadcasters and, UEFA believes, sharper ticket demand. The Portuguese camp likes the entertainment logic yet worries about starting a campaign in League B after a single bad cycle, which could leave them needing to finish top just to make a play-off. Ceferin has publicly ruled out a Champions-League-style single table, calling 54-team standings “unwatchable”, but he remains convinced that a new structure must “reward consistency, not punishment”.

Calendar chess and FIFA’s longer windows

A quieter but equally thorny issue is the revamped international calendar that FIFA will activate after 2026. The September and October slots merge into one 16-day gauntlet allowing four matches, while November and March stay at two fixtures each. UEFA planners now juggle three constraints: fewer travel breaks for clubs, enough dates for group play, and room for the Nations League’s mini-finals. Sources close to the working group say one scenario places the first four qualifiers inside that longer autumn block, leaving the final two in November and reserving March exclusively for play-offs. Coaches of Liga Portugal sides fear an injury spike during the four-game sprint, yet club owners quietly applaud the reduction in travel disruption across two separate months. If adopted, Sporting and Benfica could prepare uninterrupted for crucial Champions League clashes until late September, while Fernando Santos’ successor would enjoy a continuous fortnight with his squad.

Money, politics and the small-nation vote

Every structural change at UEFA is measured not only in goals but in broadcast share, sponsorship tiers and the voting weight of 55 member associations. Smaller federations, courted by both camps, insist that any revamp must still guarantee them at least six competitive fixtures per cycle, the minimum needed to protect matchday income that funds grassroots pitches. Ceferin’s camp hints at solidarity payments, financed by the expanded Champions League revenue pool, to offset the risk of relegation to fewer games. The FPF, while sitting in the top-ten revenue bracket, supports that subsidy plan, partly to safeguard its own influence within the bloc: a poorer Malta or Latvia kept afloat is another ally when presidential elections come around. Behind the scenes, UEFA accountants calculate that a slimmer qualifying calendar could shave off €80 M in central TV income unless new prime-time slots are offered to Asia. That number is enough to keep every debate table busy late into the night.

The six-month countdown

Ceferin’s self-imposed deadline expires in early summer, leaving half a year for technical tweaks, political horse-trading and, inevitably, unexpected compromise. Portuguese officials expect a final vote at the ordinary congress, where a simple majority of 28 carries the motion. If the Nations League-centric model wins, the Seleção’s next competitive kick-off after the 2026 World Cup could be against a top-ranked rival rather than a minnow, raising both danger and spectacle. Should the traditional group system survive with cosmetic changes, fans will still notice the difference: shorter campaigns, tighter groups, and a March play-off window that feels more like a springtime mini-tournament. Either way, television planners in Portugal have begun pencilling premium slots for autumn double-headers and sports bars already weigh staffing for a condensed flurry of fixtures. As one senior FPF executive quipped, the only certainty is that the era of predictable road maps to Germany, the USA or England is over; from now on, qualification will be as much about navigating UEFA politics as scoring headers in the six-yard box.