Inácio injury turns Portugal’s smooth World Cup qualifying bumpy

Portuguese supporters have grown accustomed to seeing their national team march through qualifying campaigns with minimal turbulence, yet the latest window has reminded everyone how slim the margin for error can be. A late equaliser by Hungary in Lisbon and, more importantly, the enforced absence of centre-back Gonçalo Inácio have temporarily stalled Portugal’s cruise toward the 2026 World Cup.

An untimely injury that changed the script

Sporting CP’s left-footed defender had emerged as Roberto Martínez’s preferred partner for Rúben Dias, but a seemingly innocuous knock to his calf muscles during the 1-0 win in Dublin proved more disruptive than first feared. The Federation’s Health and Performance Unit declared Inácio “unfit for match activity”, prompting his prompt release from camp on 13 October. Although the medical bulletin stressed the trauma was “mild”, the timing hurt: Portugal faced Hungary only 24 hours later. Inácio’s removal at half-time in Ireland had already raised eyebrows; the official line was “precaution”, yet insiders say the player struggled to plant his left foot when accelerating. By the time scans confirmed a grade-one contusion, the coaching staff had no wiggle room to summon reinforcements.

Defensive jigsaw: gaps, improvisations and mixed form

With no like-for-like call-up, Martínez turned to a hybrid mix of full-backs and emerging centre-halves. António Silva, Benfica’s elegant stopper, slid alongside Rúben Dias, while the flanks were entrusted to Diogo Dalot and Nuno Mendes. On paper it looked sturdy; in reality, Hungary exposed spaces between the lines, especially after the hour mark when fatigue crept in. The bench lacked the calming versatility of Inácio, who normally organises Sporting’s back four and offers an outlet in the first phase of build-up. Of the remaining defenders, only Dias is playing weekly Champions League football; Renato Veiga, identified as the next cab off the rank, is still settling at Villarreal. Add the continued absences of João Cancelo and João Neves through injury, and Portugal suddenly feel thinner than their depth chart suggests.

A 2-2 draw in Alvalade that keeps calculators busy

Lisbon’s José Alvalade stadium, bursting with more than 45,000 spectators, saw Hungary strike on 8 minutes, capitalising on a loose clearance. Portugal fought back through Bruno Fernandes and a superb Pedro Neto drive, but defensive concentration evaporated in stoppage time, allowing a scrappy leveller that silenced the stands. The point still leaves Martínez’s side atop Group G, yet the gap has narrowed to 3 points with two rounds remaining. Inácio watched from a private box, visibly frustrated, while physiotherapists kept him on a strict icing regime. Fans vented on social media about missed chances but the coaching staff privately bemoaned the lack of aerial dominance usually provided by their 1.86-metre centre-back.

Numbers tell the story: solidity with and without Inácio

Since the qualifying cycle began last September, Portugal have conceded 0.4 goals per match when Inácio starts and 1.3 when he does not. The disparity is small-sample but noticeable. He rarely tops the highlight reels, yet his left-footed distribution opens angles that free the midfield pivot, reducing risky square passes. Against Ireland, the side completed 92% of their first-phase exits; versus Hungary that figure dipped to 83%, forcing Rúben Neves to drop deeper and exposing space behind the double pivot. Martínez acknowledged the issue post-match, saying the team lost “defensive balance in transition” – a polite reference to Inácio’s absence.

Club horizon: Marseille deadline and domestic juggling

The good news for Sporting fans is that medical projections target the Champions League clash with Marseille on 22 October for a full return. Sources in Alcochete insist the player could, if pressed, feature in this weekend’s Taça de Portugal tie against Paços de Ferreira but staff prefer caution. Sporting’s manager, Rúben Amorim, has privately voiced relief that the injury was not muscular but traumatic, meaning recovery hinges on pain management rather than fibre regeneration. A fit Inácio is essential to the Lions’ European ambitions and, by extension, to Portugal’s November qualifiers against Slovakia and Georgia.

Bigger picture: qualification still in Portuguese hands

Despite the hiccup, Portugal lead their group, boast a superior head-to-head record and possess a squad brimming with attacking firepower. Yet the Hungary draw served as a wake-up call: defensive depth can no longer be an afterthought. The federation has invested heavily in a new High-Performance Centre in Oeiras, and staff are already analysing contingency plans should further knocks arise. For now, all eyes turn to Inácio’s recovery timeline. If he returns seamlessly against Marseille, his absence may be remembered as a brief footnote. If setbacks persist, the road to North America 2026 could become far more complicated than anyone in Portugal anticipated.