Seguro Leads First Round as Ventura Forces Historic 2026 Presidential Runoff in Portugal

Portugal went to the polls on Sunday and, for the first time in four decades, voters will return to the ballot boxes in February to decide who will occupy Belém Palace. Former Socialist Party leader António José Seguro claimed a narrow but clear lead in the first presidential round, while right-wing challenger André Ventura forced the contest into extra time.

What you need to know

• António José Seguro leads with 31.11 % (≈ 1.75 M votes) after 3 206 parishes were counted.

• André Ventura came second on 23.52 %, setting up a two-man race on 8 February.

• The remaining field was fragmented: João Cotrim de Figueiredo 16 %, Henrique Gouveia e Melo 12.32 %, Luís Marques Mendes 11.30 %, and smaller lines for five other hopefuls.

• National turnout stalled at 52.35 %, meaning 47.65 % of registered voters stayed home.

A night of firsts

Portugal’s presidential elections seldom stray beyond a single ballot. Yet 2026 has broken the habit: the lack of a majority winner pushes the country into its second ever runoff and the first since 1986. The clash pits the moderate former Socialist secretary-general against the most vocal figure of the nationalist right, an encounter observers already brand a referendum on Portugal’s political centre.

The numbers behind the headlines

Counting 3 206 parishes – practically the entire national map – election officials released near-final tallies that underline a system in flux:

| Candidate | Votes | % | Political Family ||-----------|-------|----|------------------|| António José Seguro | 1 754 904 | 31.11 % | Centre-left/PS || André Ventura | 1 326 512 | 23.52 % | Right/CH || João Cotrim de Figueiredo | 903 114 | 16.00 % | Liberal/IL || Henrique Gouveia e Melo | 695 221 | 12.32 % | Independent (military) || Luís Marques Mendes | 637 044 | 11.30 % | Centre-right/PSD dissident || Remaining 5 candidates | 318 000 | 5.75 % combined | Left & civic |

The dispersion is stark: five aspirants share barely half a million votes, while Seguro fails to capture one in three. Electoral specialists argue the figures reflect a search for fresh leadership rather than deep ideological shifts.

The battle lines for round two

Seguro’s camp has already dispatched envoys to the Social Democrats and Liberals, hoping to weave a broad constitutional front against Ventura. In contrast, the Chega leader is betting on anti-establishment momentum, touring interior districts where abstention exceeded 60 %. Political scientist Marina Costa Lobo notes that “whoever manages to mobilise the disenchanted suburban vote will dictate 8 February.”

Campaign narratives are crystallising:• Institutional stability versus radical shake-up.• European anchorage against scepticism toward Brussels.• A pledge to curb living-cost pressures set against promises to slash taxes.

How abstention reshaped the map

Low participation helped compress the field. Lisbon and Porto posted turnout below 50 %, an anomaly for urban strongholds. Analysts attribute the dip to voter fatigue after two general elections in 18 months and a perception that the presidency wields limited economic power. Still, when abstention climbs, minor swings carry outsized weight—something both finalists are keenly aware of.

What happens next

• 23 January: official results certified by the Constitutional Court.• 26–30 January: televised debates—two head-to-head encounters, one moderated by public broadcaster RTP and one by a private consortium.• 6 February: overseas voting concludes for Portuguese communities in Europe, Africa and the Americas.• 8 February: runoff election. Polls close at 19:00 mainland time; projections are expected within minutes.

If the calendar holds, the new president will be sworn in on 9 March, just ahead of the spring legislative session. For citizens weighing another trip to the urns, the next three weeks offer a compact civic tutorial on what the presidency can—and cannot—deliver in a fragmented political era.