Portugal’s PAN to Back Centrist in Potential Presidential Runoff, Aiming to Block Far-Right

Portugal’s smaller parties are already strategising for a second-round presidential ballot that may never happen but could shape the country’s political centre of gravity for years. One of them, Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (PAN), says it will not sit on the side-lines if voters return to the polls in February.

At a glance

• PAN’s newly re-elected leader wants the party to endorse a centre-left or centre-right democratic figure in any run-off.

• The goal: block an outright victory by the far right should its candidate survive round one.

• Internal dissent over leadership style lingers, yet delegates backed Inês de Sousa Real with 95 % support.

• Political scientists warn that in a two-horse race, even small vote transfers can decide the Palácio de Belém.

A call from Coimbra

Speaking outside the party’s X National Congress in Coimbra, Inês de Sousa Real—re-elected spokesperson for a third term—told journalists that PAN “cannot remain neutral” if a second ballot is required on 16 February. Her message, sharpened by concerns over a potential breakthrough by André Ventura’s Chega, was plain: the party will rally behind “any candidate anchored in the democratic spectrum.” Delegates applauded, seeing the stance as defensive of immigrant rights, LGBTQI+ equality, gender parity, climate action and the party’s flagship animal-welfare agenda. PAN has no presidential hopeful of its own and, for the 18 January first round, has already granted its members full freedom of vote.

Why the second round matters

Portugal has needed a run-off just once—back in 1986—but current polling shows five strong contenders, none near the 50 % threshold. Should Ventura, António José Seguro, Luís Marques Mendes, Henrique Gouveia e Melo or João Cotrim Figueiredo finish in the top two, every endorsement from eliminated parties will be hunted. Analysts note that PAN’s 3-5 % national support, while modest, could tip the balance in a tight duel. By declaring early, Sousa Real hopes to shape the narrative, extract policy pledges on animal protection, renewable energy, affordable housing and ensure her party is not dismissed as an electoral footnote.

Echoes of 1986

Veteran observers still cite the Mário Soares upset as proof that alliances win run-offs. Then, the fragmented left coalesced to stop a conservative front-runner. Today’s landscape is different—social media, lower party discipline, and a more volatile electorate—but historians argue the core lesson remains: uniting splintered voters can overturn a first-round gap. PAN’s leadership openly references that precedent, positioning the party as a bridge-builder between progressive forces and moderate centrists while contrasting itself with the “illiberal rhetoric” it attributes to the far right. Whether the comparison resonates beyond party ranks will depend on how convincingly PAN can sell its green-humanist brand to voters who may never have marked its ballot box before.

Inside PAN: unity, tension and renewal

Sousa Real’s overwhelming re-election—95 % of delegate ballots—masked months of bruising resignations and accusations of authoritarian management. Critics such as Pedro Fidalgo Marques warned that internal quarrels risk making PAN “irrelevant.” Yet, during the Coimbra weekend, dissent was muted, in part because the leadership framed the external threat of extremism as a unifying cause. Delegates approved motions to invest campaign funds in grass-roots digital outreach, door-to-door canvassing, and youth recruitment. Still, the promise to consult the National Political Commission before endorsing any candidate is meant to reassure sceptics that the decision will be collective, transparent, strategic, accountable.

What political scientists say

Experts contacted by Público and Rádio Renascença agree that second-round endorsements can matter—but only if three conditions align: credible signalling, disciplined voters, persuasive ground game. “A logo on a poster is not enough,” notes ISCTE professor Paula Espírito Santo. PAN will need to mobilise its volunteers, mailing lists, influencers, eco-activist networks and translate endorsement into actual votes. Moreover, the party risks alienating sympathisers if it backs a candidate viewed as too mainstream or too lax on climate emergency commitments. In other words, the calculus is delicate: endorse and risk dilution, or stay neutral and risk irrelevance.

The road to 18 January—and possibly February

While PAN fine-tunes its playbook, presidential hopefuls scramble for signatures and airtime. Campaigns formally launch after New Year, and televised debates start on 3 January. For voters in Portugal, the next eight weeks will clarify whether a single round suffices or whether the country will reprise the drama of 1986. Either way, PAN has signalled it will not be a bystander. In a contest where every percentage point could crown or fell a president, even smaller parties may discover they carry outsized weight when the count heads into overtime.