Portugal’s Liberal Bloc Unveils Movimento 2031, Rejects Ventura in Run-Off

Portugal’s liberal electorate suddenly finds itself without a candidate in the 8 February run-off, yet it is anything but silent. Former presidential hopeful João Cotrim Figueiredo has channelled his 900 000 first-round votes into a freshly minted civic platform while making one message unmistakably clear: he will not back André Ventura. Whether that decision ultimately boosts front-runner António José Seguro or swells the tally of blank ballots remains the question that will preoccupy campaign strategists over the next twelve days.

Key take-aways so far

• “Movimento 2031” promises to keep the liberal agenda visible beyond election night.

• The initiative is civic and non-partisan, yet unashamedly political in tone.

• Cotrim Figueiredo rules out a vote for Ventura, calls him a “serial user of untruths”.

• Iniciativa Liberal (IL) headquarters will not endorse any contender, although individual members are free to express preferences.

• Analysts warn that how those 16 % of first-round voters act may decide the presidency.

From ballot boxes to civic squares

Cotrim Figueiredo’s post-election move echoes a trend in recent Portuguese politics: frustrated voters organising outside classic party structures. The new entity, baptised “Movimento 2031” in a nod to the centenary of the Portuguese Republic’s current constitution, is positioned as a watchdog rather than a would-be party. Organisers say the network will stage public forums, publish policy scorecards and—importantly—pressure any government, left or right, that drifts from market-friendly reform or civil-liberties commitments.Supporters point out that Portugal’s last significant civic push, the 2012 anti-austerity marches, forced concrete concessions from then-Prime-Minister Passos Coelho. Cotrim Figueiredo is betting that the same bottom-up energy can keep liberal issues—from tax simplification to school-choice vouchers—on the national radar.

What exactly is “Movimento 2031”?

While social media accounts sprang up within hours of the announcement, the structure remains intentionally lightweight: no membership fees, no permanent staff, only a core group of volunteer coordinators. Mariana Leitão, current IL president, called the blueprint “healthy” because it avoids the “bureaucratic gravity” that often sinks Portuguese start-ups in civic life.Key objectives sketched out at the launch event include:

Quarterly town-halls in Lisbon, Porto and at least one inland city.

An online policy dashboard benchmarking government pledges against execution.

Partnerships with university think tanks to publish evidence-based proposals ahead of the 2027 legislative race.Although insiders admit that a future party “cannot be ruled out”, Cotrim Figueiredo insists the platform’s first milestone is simply “surviving the media cycle” until the constitutional reform debates pick up steam in 2028.

A liberal base adrift in the run-off

The second round pits António José Seguro, a centre-left former Socialist Party leader, against the right-wing populist André Ventura. In the first ballot on 18 January, Seguro captured 31.1 % of the vote, Ventura 23.5 %, Cotrim Figueiredo 16 % and the remaining candidates split the rest.Immediately after those numbers landed, IL executives huddled to discuss whether to take sides. The consensus: the party would not issue a collective endorsement. That leaves nearly one in six voters free to reassess their options. Cotrim Figueiredo’s personal stance— “I will not vote for Ventura”—serves as a loud signal to sympathisers who share an allergy to populism but balk at classic Socialist economics.Political scientist Susana Peralta argues that the liberal slice of the electorate is “less tribal” and more policy-driven than other blocs, making a split result plausible: part to Seguro, part to blank ballots, a sliver even to Ventura despite the founder’s cue.

The numbers that shape the chessboard

If every Cotrim Figueiredo voter defected to Seguro, the Socialist would cruise past the 50 % threshold comfortably. Yet Portuguese history suggests a more fragmented migration. In 2016, for example, nearly 180 000 supporters of right-centrist candidate Paulo Portas chose to spoil their ballots rather than pick between Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and António Sampaio da Nóvoa.No reputable poll has been released since 23 January, but two Lisbon-based firms confirmed to this newspaper that fieldwork is under way. Early focus-group notes hint at three factors shaping liberal minds: economic freedom, institutional integrity and a desire to “punish demagoguery”. None of those bode well for Ventura, whose campaign leans heavily on cultural-war rhetoric.Conversely, Seguro must convince fiscally conservative liberals that his €15 B industrial-policy plan will not reignite the deficit saga that cost Portugal painful bail-out years.

Reactions across the spectrum

Ventura labelled Cotrim Figueiredo’s U-turn—from “no exclusions” during the campaign to a hard veto today—“the political pirouette of the season”. He claims liberals are naturally closer to his low-tax agenda than to Socialist orthodoxy.Green candidate Jorge Pinto, eliminated in the first round, shot back that Ventura “confuses low taxes with low facts”. Among commentators, the split verdict is striking: some praise Cotrim Figueiredo for drawing a red line against populism; others accuse him of wasting leverage that could have extracted policy pledges from either finalist.

Why ordinary voters should care

Beyond presidential pageantry, the drama exposes a larger tension inside Portugal’s centre-right: how to combine fiscal prudence, social modernity and institutional respect without drifting toward extremes. For families juggling mortgage hikes and power bills, the risk is that ideological trench warfare will sideline concrete fixes.If Movimento 2031 succeeds, it may inject a permanent, data-driven voice into debates on housing permits, startup capital gains and school digitalisation—issues with direct pocketbook impact across the country’s 308 municipalities.Until then, one small act—marking a ballot on 8 February—remains the most immediate tool at voters’ disposal.

At a glance: what happens next

• 29 Jan-1 Feb: First post-run-off polls expected; watch the liberal swing vote metric.

• 3 Feb: Televised debate; analysts predict Cotrim Figueiredo will feature in a citizens’ panel.

• 8 Feb: Run-off election day; turnout above 60 % could reshape expectations for 2027.

• Spring 2026: Movimento 2031 schedules inaugural town-hall in Coimbra, testing its grassroots muscle.

Whichever way the presidency tilts, Cotrim Figueiredo’s gamble underlines a simple idea: political capital can be spent on more than one ballot, and Portugal’s liberal minority intends to keep adding interest.