Portugal’s Centre-Right Jitters Grow Ahead of 2026 Vote After PM’s Endorsement

A rare intra-party SOS has set off the first real tremor of Portugal’s 2026 presidential race. With the official campaign barely underway, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro publicly urged centre-right supporters to close ranks behind former PSD leader Luís Marques Mendes. The plea was meant to block “two populists” from sliding into a second round, yet it immediately supplied rival candidate João Cotrim de Figueiredo with ammunition. The Liberal contender says the appeal exposes more anxiety than authority inside the governing bloc.

Quick take

• Montenegro’s call for a single vote on 4 January surprised even veteran PSD organisers.

• Cotrim de Figueiredo labels it a “proof of fragility” in the Aliança Democrática (AD) coalition.

• The move revives old questions about Marques Mendes’ ability to energise the party base.

• Transparency rows and internal PSD history add layers to an already crowded contest.

An endorsement that wasn’t on the script

The Prime Minister chose a campaign lunch in Batalha to make an unambiguous request: conservatives, centrists and classical liberals aligned with the AD should vote “usefully” for Marques Mendes on 26 January. Inside PSD headquarters the message was framed as a push for “unity and stability,” yet several district leaders admit they had expected Montenegro to keep a ceremonial distance. A senior strategist, speaking anonymously, said the public nudge was drafted overnight after internal polls showed the race tightening.

Liberal backlash: “If the candidate were stronger, he wouldn’t need help”

Within hours, Cotrim de Figueiredo – backed by Iniciativa Liberal – branded the appeal a “red flag”. To him, the fact that the party’s most powerful figure must personally intervene three weeks before voting day “suggests Marques Mendes cannot mobilise even traditional PSD voters.” Cotrim added that Montenegro might already be “regretting the choice” of champion.

The Liberal campaign has spent months arguing that Portugal needs a head of state willing to “whistle-blow” on governments of any colour. Montenegro’s overt insertion into the race, Cotrim says, undercuts the idea that a President Marques Mendes would be “independent from São Bento”.

The two Luíses: friendship, fallout and a reunion of convenience

Political insiders still recall the famous photograph that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa staged in 2016 of the “Three Luíses” – Marques Mendes, Montenegro and Campos Ferreira. The pair fell out briefly a decade ago over internal caucus promotions, a spat some PSD veterans describe as a “mini-betrayal”. That rift seemed buried when, in February 2025, Montenegro convinced the party council to give its formal stamp of approval to a Marques Mendes candidacy. The current plea for votes marks the culmination of their renewed alliance – but also puts Montenegro’s own political capital on the line.

Old transparency questions return

During a fiery television debate on 7 December, Cotrim pressed Marques Mendes to publish the client list of his law firm. He said voters deserve to know whether any future President could be influenced by private interests. Mendes refused, calling the demand a theatrical “character assassination attempt.” The story resurfaced this week when Cotrim linked Montenegro’s plea to those unresolved doubts, insisting that “a strong candidate would clear the air instead of relying on establishment endorsements.”

What the numbers tell us – and what they don’t

Public polling remains fragmentary. Two nationwide surveys published before Christmas put Marques Mendes at roughly 34-36 %, Cotrim de Figueiredo between 12 % and 18 %, with the remaining field dominated by independent mayors and an environmental activist. Analysts caution that many respondents decide late in Portuguese presidential elections. The key variable now is whether Montenegro’s rallying cry consolidates centre-right voters or alienates swing liberals who dislike party choreography.

Why it matters for everyday voters in Portugal

A President elected in the first round can immediately open channels with Brussels and financial markets, sparing Portugal weeks of uncertainty.

A forced run-off on 9 February would extend the campaign and likely harden ideological lines, complicating the Government’s 2026 budget negotiations.

Montenegro’s direct involvement blurs traditional separation between São Bento (executive) and Belém (presidency), raising constitutional culture questions that could outlast this race.

The road ahead

Campaign buses now criss-cross the interior, where turnout swings are historically decisive. Marques Mendes plans an economic-security tour of the Beira region, while Cotrim de Figueiredo is betting on university town rallies and social-media town-halls. The Prime Minister is expected to join at least three more events, despite warnings from some cabinet members that “the more he appears, the more he owns the result.”

Whether Montenegro’s plea proves to be a strategic masterstroke or an own goal will be clear by breakfast on 27 January. For now, one thing is certain: the Liberal candidate has found an opening, and the governing alliance can no longer claim it is running a risk-free front-runner.