Portugal Heads to Presidential Run-Off Between Seguro and Ventura

Portugal’s next head of state will be chosen only after a second round, a scenario that throws the country into three more weeks of high-stakes campaigning. Former Socialist Party leader António José Seguro finished the 18 January ballot in front, yet well short of the 50 % threshold, while right-wing challenger André Ventura secured the runner-up slot. The decisive face-off is now set for 8 February.

Key takeaways

• No absolute majority: On 18 January, none of the seven candidates crossed the 50 % mark demanded by the Constitution.

• Top two finishers: António José Seguro leads with 31.11 %, followed by André Ventura on 23.52 %.

• Run-off date set: The decisive vote is scheduled for 8 February; returns from the diaspora will be accepted until 12 February.

• Turnout matters: Preliminary data point to 62 % participation—better than 2021, but still below the record 1991’s 84 %.

A fractured first round leaves Portugal on edge

With 31.11 % of valid ballots, long-time Socialist policymaker António José Seguro topped the national tally. Yet the margin was too small to hand him the keys to Belém Palace, the ceremonial residence that has housed every Portuguese head of state since 1911.

His challenger, André Ventura, founder of Chega, consolidated the nationalist right with 23.52 %, recording strong showings in Setúbal, the Alentejo hinterland, and among overseas voters in Luxembourg.

The surprise of the evening was the 16 % captured by João Cotrim de Figueiredo of Iniciativa Liberal, whose metropolitan popularity in Porto proved insufficient to stay in the race.

The challengers: competing visions for Belém

Seguro, a former secretary-general of the PS, promises political stability after years of minority governments. His platform prioritises safeguarding the National Health Service, accelerating EU recovery-fund investment and strengthening Portugal’s Atlantic alliances.

Ventura presents himself as a revolt against the “system”, calling for tax cuts, mandatory life sentences for violent crimes and a migration moratorium. Critics argue his agenda pushes the limits of Portugal’s anti-discrimination laws and risks friction with Brussels.

Why 50 % proved out of reach

Several factors kept any single contender from clinching victory:

First, the crowded field of seven candidates splintered voter loyalties, with three of them capturing double-digit support. Second, fatigue after years of austerity, a stagnant housing market and repeated snap elections prompted many protest ballots or abstentions. Third, Portugal’s semi-presidential system encourages tactical voting, as the president can veto legislation, dissolve parliament and appoint prime ministers. Finally, the ascent of Chega and Iniciativa Liberal has redrawn the traditional left-right map, preventing both the PS and the centre-right PSD from clearing the majority hurdle at the first attempt.

What happens between now and 8 February

The Supreme Electoral Commission (CNE) is expected to certify final tallies by 24 January and publish the official run-off ballot. Both campaigns are now wooing supporters of Cotrim de Figueiredo, Ana Gomes and other eliminated contenders through televised debates, door-to-door canvassing and aggressive social-media blitzes.

Early voting opens on 2 February, including experimental drive-thru polling sites first tested during COVID-19, while Portuguese abroad may cast ballots at more than 150 consulates worldwide. Markets are watching closely: the Lisbon stock exchange swung 3.7 % on the morning after the first round, signalling investor sensitivity to how the contest pans out.

Whichever candidate prevails, the next president will inherit a divided electorate—and a mandate to navigate Europe’s turbulent economic and security landscape while keeping Portugal’s domestic politics on an even keel.