OECD Inflation at 3.9%: Imports Get Cheaper, Energy Costs Rising in Portugal

Food prices finally gave European wallets a breather: the latest OECD reading puts annual consumer inflation in the club of 38 advanced economies at 3.9 %, the softest pace in 2 years. Energy, however, is moving in the opposite direction, a split that Portuguese households will recognise from their own shopping trolleys and electricity bills.

Fast facts for a quick read

• Headline inflation in the OECD: 3.9 % in Nov-2025 (4.2 % in Sep)

• Food component: slid by 1 percentage point to 4 %

• Core rate (minus food & energy): 4 %, down 0.2 p.p.

• Energy component: up to 3.5 %

• Eurozone: 2.1 %; Portugal: 2.3 % (INE flash)

• U.S. data gap: October figures missing after a federal shutdown, limiting G20 comparability

Why people in Portugal should care

For Portuguese consumers, a slower OECD price race suggests that imported inflation on items such as cereals, packaged goods or electronic devices could ease further during 2026. At the same time, Lisbon’s energy bills remain exposed to the rising 3.5 % energy sub-index, a reminder that winter tariffs for electricity and gas may stay sticky until wholesale markets cool.

From a policymaker’s lens, a lower international inflation baseline hands the European Central Bank extra room to hold rates steady, supporting mortgage holders across the country. Still, analysts at BPI warn that Portuguese price pressures tied to tourism and housing are home-grown and therefore less responsive to the OECD trend.

The great split: food down, energy up

The headline retreat is almost entirely thanks to food prices, which slowed in more than half of OECD members. Supply-chain bottlenecks in grain and fertiliser finally unwound, while bumper harvests in Brazil and the U.S. depressed global commodity indices. Meanwhile, energy costs accelerated in 21 countries as crude oil inched back above $90 a barrel in early November and several governments wound down household subsidy schemes introduced in 2022.

Uneven picture across capitals

Inflation was stable or nearly flat in 17 economies, cooled in 13 and heated up in 7. Spain, Canada and South Korea fell into the easing camp; the United Kingdom and Australia topped the acceleration list. Portugal’s own 2.3 % print looks benign, yet Statistics Portugal highlights that restaurant and rental prices are still climbing at double-digit annual rates in major cities.

How the OECD figure stacks up

While 3.9 % might sound high next to the Eurozone’s 2.1 %, it towers over Japan’s 2.9 % and the 2.7 % posted in the United States for the same month. Absence of U.S. October data prevented the OCDE from publishing a fully consolidated G20 average, but preliminary calculations point to roughly 4.2 % for the wider group once Washington’s numbers are reintegrated.

Central banks tread carefully

Reaction across monetary authorities was measured. The Federal Reserve trimmed its policy range to 3.5–3.75 % in December, citing labour-market cooling. By contrast, the ECB held all three key rates, repeating its «data-dependent» mantra. The Bank of England opted for a modest quarter-point cut to 3.75 %, its first since August. Nordic and Swiss counterparts left settings unchanged, signalling the endgame of the tightening cycle may arrive by late-2026 if disinflation persists.

Outlook: slow grind lower

Economists at the OECD still expect the bloc’s headline CPI to hover near 3 % by mid-2026, assuming energy markets stabilise and supply-chain pressures remain muted. For Portugal, BPI projects 2 % by year-end 2026, comfortably within the ECB’s target but not low enough to reverse the erosion in real wages since 2022.

Key take-aways for busy readers

Headline OECD inflation cooled to 3.9 % in Nov-2025, largely on cheaper food.

Energy went the other way, up to 3.5 %, a risk for Portuguese utility bills.

The Eurozone sits at 2.1 %; Portugal slightly higher at 2.3 %.

Central banks are pausing or cutting rates, with the ECB on hold for now.

Analysts see inflation drifting lower but warn of sticky services prices in Iberia.

Further details and country-by-country data can be found on the OECD statistics portal.