Marques Mendes Seeks Portugal’s 1.1M Undecided Voters With Stability Pitch

Portugal’s presidential race has finally broken out of its polite, months-long holding pattern. In a series of brisk rallies and morning-show interviews, Luís Marques Mendes — best known to television viewers as a Sunday-night political analyst — re-introduced himself to the electorate as “the safe pair of hands” the country supposedly wants in uncertain times. Above all, he is zeroing in on the roughly 1.1 million undecided voters pollsters say could still swing the ballot. In Portugal, the president holds key powers such as the ability to dissolve parliament and veto legislation, playing a crucial role in steering the country’s political direction.

Snapshot in Four Lines

• Stability, not rupture is Marques Mendes’ core slogan.

• Undecided voters now form the largest single voting bloc in most polls.

• Rivals on the left and right accuse him of offering continuity without ideas.

• The Constitutional timetable gives candidates barely three more weeks to lock in support.

Why the Undecided Bloc Matters More Than Ever

Analysts from the University of Lisbon’s Institute of Social Sciences note that, compared with the 2021 presidential contest, the share of voters telling surveyors they are “not sure” has jumped by almost 7 percentage points. Many are younger urban professionals who feel disconnected from the traditional party machines, while a sizeable chunk are pension-age voters unsettled by the war-driven inflation spike.

“These citizens may not follow every twist in Parliament, but they do worry about energy bills, mortgage rates and whether the president can calm markets,” explains political scientist Teresa Pereira. That anxiety creates an opening for any candidate able to project institutional reliability.

Marques Mendes’ Offer: Stability Above All

In Braga, Coimbra and Faro, the former Social Democrat leader repeats the same triad: economic prudence, respect for the semi-presidential constitution and a promise to keep the presidency “out of party skirmishes.” Supporters distribute leaflets contrasting his low-key style with what they call the “tweet-first, think-later” political culture imported from abroad.

• “Portugal doesn’t need fireworks; it needs foresight,” he told a late-night crowd in Setúbal, underscoring his long resume from Parliament to the Council of State.

Can the “Steady Hand” Message Travel Beyond Lisbon?

Outside the capital, stability has a more concrete meaning. In Aveiro’s industrial belt, factory managers are fretting over German demand slowdown. Farmers in Beja face their driest winter in 90 years. Many told reporters they are less interested in ideological debates than in having a president who can “knock heads together” if minority governments keep falling.

That sentiment plays into Marques Mendes’ narrative but does not guarantee ballots in the box. Voters we spoke with in Guimarães acknowledged his experience yet wondered whether “a commentator can transform into a crisis mediator overnight.”

Rivals Push a Different Storyline

• Centre-left favourite Ana Guerra frames herself as the moderniser who will “bridge climate policy with social justice,” arguing that “business-as-usual stability” simply freezes existing inequalities.

• Far-right firebrand Rafael Borges scoffs at the very idea of continuity, insisting the presidency must “stand up to Brussels mandates.” His campaign ads splice news footage of food-price spikes with the tagline “Change, or pay the price.”

Both camps have begun painting Marques Mendes as the embodiment of “politics on autopilot.” His team, in turn, accuses them of risking investor confidence right when Portugal needs to refinance €18 B in public debt next quarter.

Reading the Most Recent Polls

A late-December telephone survey by ICS/ISCTE placed Guerra in front with 29 %, Marques Mendes in second at 23 %, Borges at 18 %, with 24 % still undecided. Crucially, when researchers pushed the undecided group for a lean, the gap between first and second shrank to within the statistical margin of error. Campaign managers from all major camps privately concede the race could hinge on as few as 150 000 votes.

The Electoral Clock Is Ticking

Presidential ballots are scheduled for 28 January. That leaves:

Two televised debates — including the crucial economy-only duel on RTP.

One pan-European summit in Brussels, where the incumbent president will host EU peers; candidates will undoubtedly piggyback on the media coverage.

A nationwide canvassing blitz coinciding with payday weekend, when foot traffic in shopping areas peaks.

What to Watch From Portugal’s Perspective

• Whether Marques Mendes can translate TV familiarity into rural turnout.

• How Guerra reconciles her progressive platform with voters’ desire for fiscal restraint.

• If Borges’ anti-establishment rhetoric mobilises abstention-prone districts in the Alentejo.

• The final-week effect of any ECB interest-rate announcement, which traditionally shakes pocket-book sentiment.

Bottom Line

For now, Luís Marques Mendes is betting that in turbulent times Portuguese citizens will prioritise calm stewardship over disruptive change. Yet the very unpredictability he warns against could also upend his path to Belém; undecided voters may crave stability, but they have not settled on who embodies it. All eyes turn to the remaining debates — and to the quiet kitchen-table conversations that will decide who receives the keys to the Palácio de Belém for the next five years.