Housing, Healthcare, Wages Dominate Portugal's 11-Candidate Presidential Race

Portugal wakes up to a record field of 11 candidates, a ballot dominated by concerns over housing, healthcare and wages, and an electorate bracing for a likely second round. Days of polling volatility have underscored a deeply fragmented vote and left bookmakers guessing who will next walk into the presidential palace in Belém.

Quick take-aways before you head to the polls

• Run-off almost certain: No survey shows anyone near the 50% mark.

• Three names – António José Seguro, André Ventura and João Cotrim de Figueiredo – trade places at the top of most polls.

• Housing crisis, SNS waiting lists and low salaries set the tone of every televised debate.

• Campaign budgets climbed to €4.9 M, the highest ever for a Portuguese presidential race.

• The incumbent, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is term-limited; voters are choosing a completely new face for the next five years.

Why this contest feels different

In past elections the race generally boiled down to two or three household figures. This time the ballot is a kaleidoscope that stretches from the radical-right Chega leader to an ecologist academic, from a four-star admiral to a satirical rock singer. The sheer variety mirrors the country’s wider political shake-up that put six parties in Parliament and pushed support for the mainstream left and right below 60 % combined. Analysts warn that such variety can energise turnout yet also leave many voters unsure which promise – or personality – best lines up with their daily struggles.

The five names most likely to survive round one

António José Seguro – Backed by the governing PS, the former socialist leader banks on a reputation for consensus-building and places the SNS at the heart of his platform.

André Ventura – The Chega chief runs on an anti-system message, linking corruption, immigration and the erosion of public services under a single banner of "cleaning house".

João Cotrim de Figueiredo – Ex-liberal party boss and MEP promising an enterprise-friendly presidency, lighter regulation and what he calls a “laser-focus on growth”.

Luís Marques Mendes – The veteran PSD-CDS figure hopes decades of Cabinet and TV punditry translate into an image of steady stewardship.

Henrique Goveia e Melo – The Navy admiral who marshalled the Covid-19 vaccine rollout tells voters he can replicate that “mission-style efficiency” at Palácio de Belém.

(Each of the five polls released in the last week shows these names collecting a combined 85-90 % of decided votes, with margins too thin to call the order.)

Independent and smaller-party voices

Behind the headline acts stand six aspirants determined to punch above their polling weight:

• Catarina Martins – Bloco de Esquerda figure pledging a presidency that defends climate justice and refuses "faceless austerity".

• António Filipe – The PCP jurist framing the campaign around workers’ rights and resistance to privatisation.

• Jorge Pinto – The Livre green, just 38, telling supporters the country needs a “post-carbon social contract”.

• André Pestana – Education trade-unionist who wants a maximum wage capped at ten times the minimum.

• Humberto Correia – Algarve artist touring the nation dressed as Dom Afonso Henriques to dramatise the housing emergency.

• Manuel João Vieira – Musician mixing absurdist pledges – “a Ferrari for every citizen” – with genuine barbs at political privilege.

Poll numbers in perspective

Most recent "tracking" by Pitagórica gives Seguro 25.1 %, Ventura 23 % and Cotrim 22.3 %, a gap well inside the margin of error. Earlier this week a Católica/RTP poll switched the top two spots, while Intercampus put Ventura slightly ahead of Marques Mendes. The average of all five reputable polls published since 10 January sits at:

• Ventura – 22.9 %

• Seguro – 22.8 %

• Cotrim – 20.1 %

• Goveia e Melo – 12 %

• Marques Mendes – 11.8 %The undecided slice remains around 1 in 5 voters, enough to reshuffle positions by dusk.

Follow the money

Campaign finance filings to the Constitutional Court reveal the most expensive operation belongs to Marques Mendes at €1.32 M, followed by Seguro on €1.13 M. Ventura budgets €900 k yet discloses just €675 in individual donations so far, a publicity move to highlight what he calls “grass-roots purity”. Legal caps ban company cheques and limit personal gifts to €31,350. Even so, transparency groups complain that donors’ identities remain hidden behind banking paperwork not made public before election day.

Possible second-round match-ups

With no one close to an outright majority, attention already turns to 8 February. Pollsters suggest a Ventura–Seguro duel would split the country down a cultural-economic line, while a Seguro–Cotrim pairing could force the centre-left and centre-right into unusual alliances. The admiral’s team hopes he could sneak into second place today and then scoop up moderate votes from both sides.

Issues that could decide late ballots

Every doorstep conversation seems to circle back to three pain points:• Sky-high rents forcing families out of Lisbon and Porto cores.• Hospital waiting rooms where non-urgent cases face months-long queues.• Monthly pay packets that lag behind most of Western Europe, fuelling youth emigration.How convincingly each candidate talks about fixing these headaches – and how credible the public finds those promises – may still swing thousands of ballots before the polls close.

What happens next?

Ballot boxes close at 19:00 nationwide. Urban precincts normally report within an hour, but smallmountain parishes can take longer. If, as expected, no one crosses the 50 % threshold, the top two finishers return for a final showdown in three weeks. Until then, the Presidential Palace remains in caretaker mode, and Portugal will watch an even more intense burst of campaigning – courtships, television debates, and behind-the-scenes deal-making included.

Whatever tonight’s tally shows, one thing is already clear: this is the most plural – and unpredictable – presidential election since 1986.