Shanty Housing Crisis Roils Portugal’s Parties Before Local Elections

Families pushed ever farther from Portugal’s big cities woke up this week to learn that their living conditions have become a centre-stage weapon in the autárquicas campaign. A dispute that began as a war of words between the prime minister and the socialist opposition now exposes the deeper fault lines of a housing model that has left thousands improvising roofs from sheet metal and plastic. Beneath the political noise, the facts of the crisis – and what is not being done to solve it – are finally spilling into the open.

A Striking Exchange Sheds Light on a Persistent Scar

The clash flared when José Luís Carneiro accused Luís Montenegro of “great inhumanity” after the prime minister linked the resurgence of shack settlements to municipalities run by left-wing parties. Speaking during a Belém restaurant remarks session with PSD mayors on 30 September, Montenegro claimed a slow return of bairros de lata “here and there,” mainly under socialist or communist councils. Carneiro shot back from Faro, inviting the premier to inspect the roadside slum beside the A25 in Viseu – a Viseu challenge awkward for a PSD stronghold. The episode, unfolding just days before the autárquicas campaign formally kicks off, has turned a localised housing tragedy into a political blame game televised nationwide.

Why the Debate Matters Beyond the Party Logos

Under the surface lurks the broader housing crisis that has sent Lisbon rents soaring 40 % in five years and squeezed household budgets from Porto to Portimão. Critics note that many shacks rise on State-owned plots, suggesting the government cannot evade responsibility by gesturing at city halls. A middle-class exodus toward peripheral municipalities such as Moita and Montijo has collided with the influx of migrant labourers in construction and tourism, stretching local infrastructure and public perception alike. With electoral stakes high, the row risks overshadowing structural fixes while fraying the social fabric in communities already under strain.

What the Numbers Really Say About Shack Housing

Officially, the Census 2021 counted just over 4 000 shacks, yet fieldwork by social scientists found 11 999 households in precarious shelters that year and 136 800 housing shortages overall. An ISCTE study 2025 warns the Area Metropolitana de Lisboa is witnessing a barracas resurgence in at least seven parishes. Nationwide, the rate of severe deprivation 12.9% in 2023 hints the scale may be underestimated, with under-counting concerns acknowledged even by the statistics office. The figures add nuance to Montenegro’s claim that the problem “returned slowly”; for many urban planners it never fully disappeared.

Are the Government Tools Working or Rusting?

Launched in 1993, the Programa Especial de Realojamento (PER) demolished nearly all historic shanty towns, building 34 759 municipal flats and rehousing 132 181 persons. Yet follow-up regeneration stalled and maintenance budgets were cut. Its successor, 1.º Direito, has spent €116 M executed since 2018, delivering 2 100 new homes while another 87 000 families identified wait for keys. Mayors complain of slow delivery, contractors cite price inflation, and housing NGOs blame bureaucratic bottlenecks that leave funds idling in Brussels. Carneiro’s call for parliamentary scrutiny of the Ministry of Infrastructure signals frustration across party lines.

The Human Front Line: Voices from the Periphery

In the maze of 2.º Torrão in Almada or the freshly sprouted shacks of Loures newcomers, families improvise illegal connections to water and power, dreading unpredictable evictions when police arrive. Children cross rutted tracks on school-bus routes across mud, while volunteers from NGO Habita run community kitchens to supplement thin pay-cheques. Amid hope-versus-fear conversations, younger workers – cleaners, delivery riders, hospitality staff – say they earn too much for social housing but too little for market rents, underscoring how today’s crisis differs from the post-dictatorship poverty PER once tackled.

What Comes Next in the Autárquicas Countdown

With early-October polls tightening in coastal municipalities, analysts see housing conditions as a potential swing factor in swing districts like Almada, Seixal and Vila Franca de Xira. The opposition is pressing for an infrastructure ministry hearing, while PSD backbenchers float a cross-party task-force idea to channel the next European funds window into public housing. Meanwhile winter rains looming threaten to flood plywood shacks, reviving the short-term rent cap debate in parliament. As the voters’ litmus test approaches, few doubt that the housing war of words will intensify – the question is whether concrete will follow rhetoric before more tarpaulins appear along the motorways.