Gouveia e Melo’s 15% Poll Leaves Portugal’s 2026 Presidential Race Wide Open

The admiral who once appeared untouchable in the race for Belém has hit turbulent waters. Recent surveys place Henrique Gouveia e Melo well below the early-2025 highs that first turned him into the darling of undecided voters, yet the former Navy chief insists that numbers on a spreadsheet "won’t steer the ship" and predicts a different verdict when ballots are counted. Below, a look at what is really happening behind the headline figures, why it matters for people living in Portugal, and how the campaign may still twist again.

Why the downdraft is hard to ignore

Portugal’s presidential polling average has changed dramatically in under a year. The Observador’s "Radar" tracker now registers 15.57 % support for Gouveia e Melo, slotting him in 4th place behind André Ventura, Luís Marques Mendes and António José Seguro. Back in February 2025, a Pitagórica poll had awarded him 35.9 % and a clear lead. The turning points were unmistakable:

• June 2025: Intercampus records an 8.3-point slide for the admiral while Mendes rises.

• October 2025: for the first time he loses the top position, passed by Mendes and Ventura.

• 5 January 2026: a CNN Portugal/TVI/TSF/JN survey cuts his share to well under the 22.7 % logged in the previous October.

Such a steady erosion is unusual in presidential contests, which tend to reward name recognition. The fact that it has happened anyway signals a race still wide open—and voters who are willing to re-evaluate.

What is draining support?

Several mutually reinforcing factors explain the drop, according to pollsters’ technical notes and political strategists interviewed off-record:

Fragmented field: With at least three heavyweight party figures now official candidates, the once-enjoyed monopoly on "outsider" appeal has vanished.

Indecision evaporates: The share of "don’t knows" fell sharply in Intercampus tracking. As these citizens picked sides, their choices scattered across the political spectrum rather than clustering around the admiral.

Debate dynamics: Luís Marques Mendes’ crisp performances and António José Seguro’s states-manlike tone during summer debates impressed older viewers, a cohort that had never been Gouveia e Melo’s natural base.

Campaign fatigue: Analysts note that the military aura that boosted the admiral during the pandemic’s vaccination drive no longer feels as urgent in voters’ daily lives.

Put together, these trends have turned what looked like a coronation into a dogfight.

Candidate’s counter-narrative

When asked on 3 January about the sagging figures, Gouveia e Melo shrugged: "The real poll is on election day." He argues that small sample sizes and varying methodologies exaggerate movement week to week. Aides also whisper that an independent, non-partisan candidacy is historically penalised once party machines crank up nationwide canvassing operations—a tide they claim will recede when official airtime levels the field.

How the numbers break down

Digging deeper into cross-tabs from Aximage, Pitagórica and Eurosondagem reveals telling asymmetries:

• Young voters (18-34) still place the admiral first, albeit by a thinner margin than six months ago.• Over-65s have swung decisively toward Seguro and Mendes, trimming Gouveia e Melo’s coalition in districts such as Braga and Leiria.• Urban centres like Lisbon and Porto now register four-way splits, while smaller coastal towns—historically receptive to military profiles—show only a modest decline for the admiral.

That demographic tilt matters because turnout is traditionally higher in the older age brackets, something campaign tacticians cannot afford to dismiss.

Can he stage a comeback?

History offers mixed precedents. Jorge Sampaio was polling in third place six weeks before the 1996 vote yet ended up President; by contrast, Manuel Alegre never recovered from a mid-campaign slump in 2011. For Gouveia e Melo, insiders hint at a three-pronged reset:

Sharper ground game: More face-to-face events outside metropolitan zones where his naval background resonates.

Policy depth: Moving beyond patriotic symbolism toward concrete proposals on housing and salaries, issues that consistently rank atop Portuguese concerns.

Debate rematch: Betting that a disciplined, less confrontational style can win back moderate elders who have drifted.

What to watch next

Several milestones could tilt sentiment again before ballots are printed:

• Official campaign launch and televised debates (dates to be confirmed).

• Final Eurosondagem mega-poll traditionally released 48 hours before the vote.

• Endorsements from smaller parties, especially Livre and PAN, whose electorates overlap partly with the admiral’s urban youth base.

For now, the charts say the former vaccination czar is sliding, even if the candidate himself calls it mere "instrument noise". Whether Portugal’s electorate agrees will be revealed only when votes, not percentages, are on the table.