From Sympathy to the Ballot: Seguro’s Urgent Call to Portugal’s Voters

A last-minute surge of campaign energy is rippling through Portugal as voters prepare to pick the country’s next head of state. António José Seguro, the Socialist veteran who once led the PS, is hammering home a single message: feelings don’t cast ballots. His now-famous line — “Não basta ter o voto no coração e na cabeça” — has turned into a rallying cry for undecided moderates, anxious progressives and anyone fearful of an extreme-right upset.

What to keep an eye on today

• Polls place Seguro in a tight three-way contest for the second-round spot

• Turnout could swing the result; abstention has topped 40 % in recent votes

• Rival camps try to frame the ballot as either a referendum on populism or a defence of the Constitution

• Digital disinformation risks clouding last-minute opinions, warn analysts

Why the phrase resonates beyond campaign slogans

When Seguro told reporters at Vila do Conde’s street market that "sentir o voto não chega", he tapped into a chronic Portuguese dilemma: high political sympathy versus low electoral participation. The blunt reminder aims to convert that latent goodwill into the single act that counts — "pôr a cruzinha" on the paper. In a contest where a handful of percentage points could decide who faces a likely run-off, every extra trip to the polling booth matters.

From Vila do Conde to the national spotlight

The remark was delivered on 16 January as the candidate toured Portugal’s North, an area still scarred by factory closures yet fiercely loyal to public services. Surrounded by fishmongers and pensioners, Seguro warned that “nothing is won” until ballots are counted. Within hours, the quote had splashed across news sites and flooded social networks, turning a routine market stop into the defining soundbite of his presidential push.

A race fought against Portugal’s abstention record

Voter turnout has whipsawed recently. The 2022 legislative election drew 51 % of the electorate, while 2025 posted a more encouraging 64 % participation rate — still low by European standards. Studies from the Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos blame a mix of civic apathy, logistical hurdles and distrust in parties. Seguro’s advisers believe wooing the sporadic voter pool is the only path past André Ventura, whose Chega base is disciplined and eager. "Em casa, o voto conta zero", the campaign’s leaflets insist, echoing the Vila do Conde warning.

Allies on board, fractures under the surface

Publicly, the Socialist leadership stands shoulder to shoulder with its former secretary-general. José Luís Carneiro has encouraged members to "fechar fileiras", while the International Socialist movement issued a note backing Seguro as the bulwark against "populist erosion". Yet internal PS history is thorny: previous presidential contests saw figures like Sócrates or Pedro Nuno Santos discreetly stray. Party strategists concede that "discipline on paper" does not guarantee discipline in the booth — hence the relentless reminder to get out and vote.

Beyond the left, reactions vary. Livre’s candidate, Jorge Pinto, flirted with endorsing Seguro, then retracted under grassroots pressure. Liberal contender João Cotrim de Figueiredo shrugs off the “useful vote” mantra, framing it as old-school tribalism. Meanwhile, Ventura uses the slogan to mock what he calls a "politics of fear": "Eu confio nos portugueses, não preciso de lhes dizer para deixar o sofá", he quipped at a rally in Santarém.

Numbers on the brink

The final Lusa/ICS survey released on the eve of voting assigns about 20.9 % support to Seguro — enough for second place but within the margin of error versus Cotrim de Figueiredo. Ventura leads with roughly 28 %. Crucially, the poll notes that almost 1 in 5 respondents remain either undecided or claim they "may still change". That slice is larger than the gap separating the second and third candidates. For Seguro’s camp, converting emotions into marks on the ballot could spell the difference between a runoff and retirement.

The disinformation minefield

Campaign week witnessed a surge of doctored videos, AI-generated audio and hyper-targeted memes. Specialists at NOVA IMS warn that low-trust voters are especially vulnerable to last-minute hoaxes, potentially depressing turnout or shifting soft allegiances. The National Election Commission has partnered with fact-checkers to flag viral falsehoods in real time, but resources are thin. Seguro’s team, mindful of the risk, has released its own “how to spot fakes” guide, again urging citizens to counter disinformation the simplest way — by showing up and casting an authentic vote.

What happens after the first count

If no one crosses the 50 % threshold tonight, Portugal returns to the polls in two weeks. Analysts predict a polarized face-off, either Seguro versus Ventura or Ventura against Cotrim de Figueiredo. The Socialist candidate argues he is the only figure who can gather conservative and progressive democrats in a second round, stressing his "serene, institutional" profile. His rivals say that is merely branding.

Regardless of outcome, the Vila do Conde imperative will linger: Portuguese democracy gains nothing from silent supporters. In a landscape of digital noise and ideological fatigue, the most radical act may simply be marking a paper square before the doors close.