Carneiro Urges Socialist Voters to Back Seguro in Portugal’s Presidential Race

Portugal’s centre-left is heading into the final stretch of the presidential campaign with a simple message from Socialist leader José Luís Carneiro: every single vote counts. With polls suggesting a razor-thin margin between António José Seguro and his main right-wing rivals, Carneiro is criss-crossing the country urging supporters not to leave the decision to others. The outcome could decide whether the Palace of Belém remains a moderating voice or swings toward a tougher, nationalist tone.

At a glance

• Carneiro calls on “all socialists” to turn out for António José Seguro in Sunday’s first round.

• Latest surveys place Seguro near 22 %, neck-and-neck with far-right challenger André Ventura.

• The PS argues that a fragmented left vote may open the door to an outright victory by the right or an unfavourable run-off pairing.

• Party federations have delivered more than 10 000 signatures backing Seguro to the Constitutional Court.

• Analysts see turnout in traditional PS strongholds—Lisbon’s periphery, Setúbal, and Porto’s urban belt—as the decisive factor.

A race defined by turnout

The Portuguese presidency is formally non-partisan, yet the two-round system tends to reward the candidates who can first rally a loyal base before widening their appeal. That places extraordinary pressure on the Socialist Party (PS) this year: polls give Seguro a chance to finish ahead of André Ventura, but only if left-leaning voters show up in comparable numbers to their opponents. Carneiro warns that staying home might hand control to forces “trying to rewrite the Constitution,” a veiled reference to candidates promising to curb judicial independence and media oversight.

Carneiro’s full-court press

Over the past week, the former interior minister has visited Aveiro, Braga, Coimbra, Évora and the Algarve, repeating a mantra of mobilisation, responsibility, and constitutional duty. He frames Seguro as a statesman with “both feet on the ground” and cites the candidate’s record shepherding labour-market reforms during the euro-crisis era. Carneiro’s rhetoric deliberately crosses partisan lines, inviting social-democrats, humanists, and Christian-democrats to join a “coalition for a decent society.” The sub-text: only a broad alliance can blunt the far-right surge that caught mainstream parties off-guard in recent parliamentary elections.

Why Seguro became the sole PS flag-bearer

Inside the PS, several heavyweights flirted with a run last year, but grassroots demands for an “unambiguous option” killed the idea of messy primaries. Party federations endorsed Seguro unanimously on 15 December after an internal report highlighted his moderation, familiarity with European institutions, and a “rare ability to keep union leaders and business groups in the same room.” Carneiro adds that a campaign centred on health, housing, and decent wages resonates more when fronted by someone seen as “above intraparty feuds.”

Polls: reading the fine print

Most surveys released since New Year place Ventura between 24 % and 27 % and Seguro around 21 %-23 %. Two variables matter: the share of undecided voters—now at roughly 12 %—and the abstention rate, historically high in winter elections. If abstention tops 50 %, statisticians say a first-round knockout cannot be ruled out. Conversely, a turnout bump in PS-leaning districts could push Seguro into a second round against Ventura, a scenario that many centrist politicians believe would re-energise a “Republican front.”

Repercussions for Portugal

Beyond personalities, the contest will influence debates on the 2026-2030 budget framework, upcoming NATO deployments, and the next wave of EU cohesion funds. A president sympathetic to the governing right-wing coalition might wield the veto more sparingly, while a Seguro victory could introduce a counterweight capable of sending controversial laws back to parliament. Investors watching Lisbon’s bond market cite institutional stability as the main concern, noting spreads have widened slightly since December amid headlines of “political drift.”

What happens next

Ballot boxes open at 8 a.m. nationwide on Sunday and close at 7 p.m. local time. Preliminary results are expected before midnight. Should no one pass the 50 % mark, a run-off would be scheduled for 1 February in accordance with Article 126 of the Constitution. Carneiro, who plans to spend election day in Porto before joining Seguro in Lisbon for the tally, says the instructions to campaign staff are clear: “Every ring of the doorbell between now and Sunday is one more chance to defend democracy.”

For Portuguese voters weighing their options, the next 48 hours could determine whether Belém remains a ceremonial guardrail—or becomes the new front line of the nation’s ideological divide.