8.3M Fake Campaign Posts Flooded Portuguese Feeds—How to Spot the Lies

Portugal’s first round of the 2026 presidential race has left voters with more than campaign jingles ringing in their ears. In just three weeks, a torrent of misleading posts, AI-generated polls and doctored videos reached 8.3 million timelines, testing the country’s patience with the online arena that now shapes political life. As the 8 February run-off approaches, understanding who is behind the rumours—and why they travel so far—has become just as urgent as choosing between the two remaining candidates.

Snapshot of a Digital Storm

• 8.3 million views of confirmed false or distorted items

• 347 228 reactions, 64 151 comments and 27 178 shares in the first round alone

• 17 distinct incidents flagged by the University of Beira Interior’s LabCom team

• 4 cases already linked to AI-generated content

For voters scanning social media between metro stops, those numbers translate into one uncomfortable reality: desinformação is no longer a fringe annoyance but a mainstream feature of the campaign.

Why This Matters Beyond the Screen

Portugal escaped the worst of the disinformation waves that swept other European contests in recent years, yet trust in institutions has already slipped according to Eurobarometer surveys. Analysts warn that a second-round turnout shaped by fiction rather than fact could dent the legitimacy of whoever succeeds Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Electoral watchdogs also fret that Portugal’s traditionally high acceptance of results—seen in the calm handovers of 2006, 2011 and 2016—could fracture if viral lies keep multiplying.

Prime Movers of the False Narratives

While fringe accounts did contribute, the bulk of the distortion originated close to the campaign trail:

• André Ventura and allied pages were linked to roughly 83 % of the flagged items, a dominance researchers describe as “almost monopolistic”.• Two rejected hopefuls and left-wing activist André Pestana accounted for the remainder.

Ventura’s strategy follows an international pattern: undermine mainstream media credibility, release unverifiable polling graphics and flood video feeds with emotionally charged clips that spread faster than written corrections.

The Favourite Weapon: Moving Pictures

Scroll through Facebook or X and the trend is unmistakable. Video clips carried ≈71 % of false claims, dwarfing static images. Cheap caption overlays, dramatic music and quick edits make it easier to misquote rivals or insinuate wrongdoing without outright saying it. The arrival of consumer-grade deepfake tools means even seasoned observers struggled to spot synthetic voices inserted into debate snippets.

Platform Breakdown – Where the Rumours Flourish

The LabCom tally shows a familiar hierarchy:

– Facebook & Instagram hosted every single incident, a reminder that Meta’s older crowd is still politically decisive.– X (formerly Twitter) captured between 82 % and 93 % of cases, aided by its real-time virality.– Threads (29 %) and TikTok (18 %) played smaller roles but are climbing, especially among under-25s who will vote in a presidential election for the first time.

Portuguese regulators concede they can’t match the speed of platform amplification; their current tools were designed for the blog era, not for algorithmic feeds measured in milliseconds.

Regulators and Platforms – A Game of Catch-Up

The ERC has opened three administrative probes over rogue polls, a legal lever last tweaked in 2019. Meta has applied generic “context” labels, while X promises “community notes” in Portuguese before the run-off. Critics say such moves are demasiado pouco, demasiado tarde—too little, too late—because posts often rack up thousands of impressions in the first minutes, well before any warning appears.

How Voters Can Stay One Step Ahead

Rely on the Comissão Nacional de Eleições and major newsrooms for official tallies and debate transcripts.

Treat spectacular claims that quote “private surveys” without a methodology link as suspect.

Reverse-image search videos; if the clip predates 2026, context has likely been twisted.

Report blatant fabrications; under Portuguese law, platforms must forward flagged electoral disinformation to authorities within 24 hours.

A calmer second round is not guaranteed, but public vigilance can blunt the reach of the next viral myth. As political scientist Teresa Almeida e Silva puts it, “counter-narratives work best when ordinary people share them faster than the lies.” On 8 February, the ballot box will show whether truth circulated quickly enough.