Costa's Corruption Case: No Timeline, Growing Questions

Portugal's Public Prosecutor's Office has admitted that the Operação Influencer investigation—the case that toppled former Prime Minister António Costa in November 2023—may extend beyond 2027, as newly surfaced wiretaps directly contradict Costa's earlier public statements and reignite political pressure on an already stalled inquiry.

The Core Contradiction

The wiretap recording, broadcast by TVI/CNN this week, captures a conversation between António Costa and Diogo Lacerda Machado, a legal adviser to the Start Campus data center project, which was central to the corruption allegations. The conversation took place on December 24, 2022. Yet in November 2023, Costa emphatically claimed he had "never, under any circumstances" spoken with Machado about the project. The discrepancy has drawn sharp accusations from opposition parties that Costa lied to the Portuguese public, while he now serves as President of the European Council.

André Ventura, leader of the Chega party, told parliament that Costa has been "directly refuted by the wiretaps," describing the discrepancy as "extremely serious." He argued that while Costa no longer leads Portugal's government, he holds responsibilities at the European level and must be "called to account." Mariana Leitão, leader of the Liberal Initiative (IL), echoed the criticism, stating the wiretaps prove Costa did discuss the project with Machado, characterizing this as evidence of systematic dishonesty to Portuguese voters.

What This Means for Portuguese Residents

For Portugal's citizens, the protracted inquiry represents a critical test of whether the country's judicial system can hold powerful figures accountable. The contradiction exposed by the wiretaps raises fundamental questions about trust in government at a time when citizens need confidence in their institutions. The investigation has now dragged on for over two years with no clear endpoint, leaving voters uncertain whether formal charges will ever materialize or whether the case will simply fade into procedural limbo.

Beyond the immediate political theater, this case affects how future governance will operate. The delays and procedural weaknesses signal either systemic problems in Portugal's judicial capacity or perceived political constraints that prevent swift resolution. For residents concerned about corruption, the lack of closure is itself a troubling message.

The Investigation: Background and Procedural Challenges

The Operação Influencer probe, launched in November 2023, centers on allegations of improper influence in three major infrastructure projects: a data center in Sines, a lithium mining concession in Montalegre and Boticas (Vila Real district), and a hydrogen energy facility, also in Sines.

The investigation led to the detention and release of five individuals, including Vítor Escária, then Costa's chief of staff. Although Costa himself was designated a "suspect," he was never formally made an arguido (formal suspect with enhanced legal rights), a procedural distinction that has fueled political debate over whether he received preferential treatment.

Behind the scenes, the inquiry has faced mounting criticism for procedural gaps. Analysis of the case file reveals that the Public Prosecutor's Office began tracing financial flows only two months after the initial arrests, a delay legal observers consider unusual in corruption probes. Additionally, three formal suspects have yet to be questioned, and several investigative steps deemed relevant remain pending.

Perhaps most troubling, more than two dozen wiretaps involving Costa as an interlocutor—recorded between 2020 and 2022—were submitted to the Supreme Court of Justice (STJ) only in October 2025, at a point when the court no longer held jurisdiction to validate them. The Central Criminal Court of Instruction (TCIC) also ruled its jurisdictional authority exhausted due to the passage of time, raising the prospect that these recordings could be declared inadmissible evidence.

Timeline Uncertainty and No Fixed End Date

The revelation that the investigation may extend beyond 2027 has drawn sharp focus. The Public Prosecutor's Office initially expected closure "soon" after November 2025, but that target has now dissolved. The investigation now involves over 20,000 pages of evidence.

Rui Cardoso, director of the Central Department for Criminal Investigation and Prosecution (DCIAP), addressed the delays publicly this week, pushing back against media reports that pinned the conclusion of the inquiry to late 2027. "There is no forecast," Cardoso said flatly. He acknowledged the pace is "not ideal" but insisted that complexity demands thoroughness. "We will not rush into any decision, in any direction, because of public opinion pressure," he stated.

Amadeu Guerra, Portugal's Prosecutor General, attended the same session but declined to comment, stating only that he does not "know the case" when pressed by journalists.

Political Reactions and the Broader Context

The Socialist Party, now in opposition, declined to engage. Eurico Brilhante Dias, PS parliamentary leader, told reporters he had not followed the case "in detail" and could not comment. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) similarly abstained, with deputy Alfredo Maia saying the matter remains "very raw."

The Left Bloc (BE) struck a different note. Deputy Fabian Figueiredo criticized Costa for failing to maintain proper boundaries between friendship and political leadership regarding Machado, but also condemned the leak of wiretaps to the media. "Wiretaps are an intrusive form of obtaining evidence. They should not be generalized, but they have been," he said.

The Livre party, through deputy Patrícia Gonçalves, reiterated a hands-off stance: "We do not comment on ongoing investigations. We want these cases resolved as quickly as possible, and in the right place—by justice and the courts."

The Larger Problem: Corruption Cases and Judicial Capacity

Portugal is not alone in struggling with high-profile corruption prosecutions. Across Europe, examples abound of drawn-out cases: Bettino Craxi, Italy's ex-prime minister, was convicted of influence peddling and sentenced to 27 years in the 1990s, eventually fleeing to Tunisia. Spain's José Luis Ábalos, a former minister, faced trial in April 2026 over mask procurement contracts during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Portugal, mega-processes—complex criminal cases—take an average of eight years and one month to reach final judgment, with roughly 6% exceeding 15 years. Yet corruption convictions have risen since 2023, and the country doubled its conviction rate between 2011 and 2020—suggesting institutional capacity exists, even if procedural delays persist.

The cautionary tale is Operação Marquês, involving ex-PM José Sócrates. That investigation illustrates the peril of delay: several charges now face statute-of-limitations expiration, a prospect Ventura called "a stain of shame on the entire country."

The Road Ahead

For residents of Portugal, the Operação Influencer saga poses a fundamental question: does the country's judicial system have the capacity to hold powerful figures accountable, or will procedural drift and political inertia allow the case to fade without resolution? The lack of a fixed timeline, the procedural missteps, and the political theater surrounding the wiretaps all suggest a system under strain.

Costa, now in Brussels, has repeatedly requested access to the case file and maintains he is unaware of its contents. Whether the Public Prosecutor ultimately files charges, archives the case, or allows it to languish in legal purgatory will send a clear signal—not just about Costa's legacy, but about the integrity of Portugal's institutions in confronting corruption at the highest levels.