Ventura Shuns PM Rumours, Confirms Focus on Portugal’s Presidential Race

Portugal’s winter election season has taken an unexpected twist: rumours suggest André Ventura may be better off gunning for the job at São Bento than for the keys to Belém. Yet, only days before the presidential ballot, the Chega leader insists he is “all-in” on the race for President of the Republic. What is driving the chatter, and does it change anything for voters now weighing their options?

Snapshot for the busy reader

• Ventura remains formally in the presidential contest, with polls placing him between 19 % and 21 %.

• Speculation about a pivot toward the Prime-Minister’s office stems from conservative strategists who fear splitting the right-wing electorate.

• Constitutional rules mean a second campaign—this time for legislative elections—could begin as early as autumn 2027, should the current minority government collapse.

• Political scientists see the whispers less as a realignment and more as an attempt to re-energise Chega’s base in the final stretch before 18 January.

A rumour born in Lisbon cafés—and WhatsApp groups

The first hint that Ventura might “change lane” surfaced in late December when right-of-centre columnists argued that the presidency’s ceremonial constraints would “muzzle” the Chega leader. Inside Parliament, centre-right deputies quietly circulated WhatsApp messages warning that a strong Ventura score in January could make coalition maths harder after the next legislative vote. That digital gossip reached mainstream media last week, prompting headlines that he was being “told” to run for prime minister instead.

Ventura’s own words tell a different story

Standing before supporters in Aveiro on 10 January, Ventura repeated that he seeks a head of state who will "call out government failures every single day"—and that he aims to be exactly that president. He added, however, that “Chega must be ready to govern when Portugal asks us to,” a line quickly seized upon as evidence of dual ambition. Campaign aides insist the statement reflects long-term party strategy, not a sudden switch.

Polls: close race for Belém

The daily Pitagórica tracker released on 11 January puts Ventura at 19.7 %, locked in a statistical tie with António José Seguro and João Cotrim Figueiredo. Earlier this week he even topped the table at 20.5 %. The polling volatility explains why rivals are keen to brand him a “distracted candidate” — any sign of wavering focus could shave off the margin he needs to reach a run-off.

Could Chega realistically aim for São Bento soon?

Portugal chooses its prime minister through parliamentary majorities, not a direct vote. The next legis­latives are scheduled for late 2029, but a fragile Socialist-led minority means an early dissolution is always on the cards. Chega finished second in the May 2025 election with 102 seats, well short of a governing majority. Analysts at the University of Minho calculate that even a 5-point swing to the right would still require a post-election pact with the PSD—an alliance the Social-Democrats have so far ruled out.

What strategists are really saying

• Some conservative consultants argue that a single right-wing candidacy for president would maximise the chances of blocking a Socialist from entering Belém.• By that logic, Ventura should step aside, back an “independent-PSD-friendly” figure for president, then reserve his firepower for a parliamentary showdown.• Others counter that quitting now would brand him “afraid of losing,” damaging Chega’s outsider mystique.

Inside Chega’s campaign playbook

The party has orchestrated highly choreographed “arruadas”—street walkabouts that generate prime-time footage without the rowdiness seen in 2025. Messaging focuses on emergency-room queues, teacher strikes, and immigration controls, all framed as issues a “muscular president” can force governments to fix. Organisers privately admit that the rumours of a prime-ministerial bid help keep Ventura in headline rotation “for free.”

Why the chatter matters for ordinary voters

Beyond campaign theatre, the debate spotlights a constitutional quirk: Portugal’s president may dissolve parliament but cannot set policy. Voters hoping Ventura will slash taxes or cap immigration on his own should note that only a prime minister wields those levers. The distinction is crucial as 19 % to 21 % of the electorate appear poised to back him.

Key takeaways

No formal shift: Ventura’s name will remain on the presidential ballot on 18 January.

Strategic noise: Talk of São Bento serves to rally supporters and unsettle rivals, with little evidence of an imminent switch.

Governability question: Even if Chega later chases the premiership, coalition arithmetic remains daunting.

Voter homework: Understand the powers—and limits—of each office before casting a vote.

For now, the only campaign Ventura is legally in is the one that ends at the ballot boxes next Sunday. Whether that journey is a stepping-stone or a destination will depend on the score he posts—and on how Portugal’s broader right navigates the day after.