Steady Gains: Millennium BCP Nets €502 Million in H1 2025 Despite Rate Swings

A quiet summer week on the Lisbon stock exchange ended with Millennium BCP whispering a figure that still turns heads in the Iberian banking scene: a profit just above €502 M for the first 6 months of 2025. Behind that round number lie shifting interest-rate winds, legal minefields in Warsaw, and the lingering question foreigners always ask when they move their savings to Portugal: is my bank solid?

Why overseas residents should even care

For many newcomers, Millennium BCP is the first logo they see after stepping off the plane—its branches dominate airport arrival halls and the main shopping streets. The latest earnings show the institution navigating a year of macroeconomic jitters, with net income rising 3.5 % despite the European Central Bank’s stop-start rate path. For expats weighing where to park relocation funds or how safe mortgage providers are, the bank’s €106 B in customer resources, a record, offers a snapshot of confidence in the Portuguese system.

Domestic engine keeps humming

Inside Portugal, BCP generated €424 M in net profit, up 3.2 %. Management credits a steady influx of new clients—active accounts climbed above 7 M group-wide—as well as a jump in fee income tied to insurance wrappers popular among foreign retirees. At the same time, consumer credit demand cooled, yet overall loans on the home market still nudged 3.4 % higher to €41.5 B. Higher operating expenses, especially wage inflation after the latest collective agreement, ate into some of the gain, but the cost-to-income ratio remains healthier than during the pre-pandemic period that many long-term residents will remember.

Warsaw steals the spotlight

The truly eye-catching surge came from Poland. Bank Millennium, BCP’s 50.1 %-owned subsidiary, delivered €121 M in first-half earnings even after setting aside roughly €276 M to cover Swiss-franc mortgage lawsuits—a legal saga familiar to anyone who has tried to buy property in Central Europe. The Polish arm’s performance helped push international profit 11.8 % higher to €146.6 M, underscoring how geographical diversification shields the group from Portugal’s modest growth rate.

Mozambique turbulence, but still afloat

Farther south, Millennium BIM in Mozambique faced currency swings and softer corporate lending, trimming its contribution. Various reports put first-half profit between MZN 1.65 B and 3.2 B, equivalent to roughly €23 M–€50 M depending on the exchange day. Even with that drag, the African operation remains the country’s largest privately owned bank, a point executives highlight when courting Lusophone investors.

Rising costs and looming regulation

Across the group, operating expenses jumped 10.5 % to €683.5 M as BCP beefed up cybersecurity and prepared for tougher Basel IV capital rules coming in 2026. Provisioning for bad loans has come down markedly from the post-COVID spike, but the board warns that geopolitical flare-ups—from the Red Sea to the Donbas—could reverse the trend if energy prices climb this winter.

How the market reacted and what it means for your wallet

Lisbon traders greeted the announcement with a 0.32 % uptick, nudging the share price to €0.69. The move may sound trivial, but it cements BCP’s status as the best-performing banking stock on the PSI 20 index year-to-date. For everyday foreign customers, the more tangible effect is on deposit and mortgage pricing. The bank hinted that it will keep the popular Conta Mais package—free transfers across the SEPA zone for balances above €5 k—unchanged, while variable-rate mortgages are expected to track the ECB’s gentle easing cycle forecast for autumn.

Outlook: cautious optimism with a legal tailwind

Chief executive Miguel Maya told analysts the semester felt like “navigating a foggy Atlantic crossing,” yet he maintained guidance of “mid-single-digit profit growth” for the full year. Analysts at CaixaBank BPI note that, once Polish legal provisions plateau, earnings could accelerate. For expatriates deciding whether to open a local brokerage or set up a simple current account, the takeaway is clear: Portugal’s largest domestically controlled bank is profitable, liquid, and still expanding—just don’t expect fireworks while Europe’s broader economy drifts sideways.