Spinumviva Ethics Debate Casts Shadow Over Portugal’s Presidential Contest

Portugal’s presidential race has taken an unexpected turn. A front-running candidate is questioning whether Prime Minister Luís Montenegro ever truly squared the circle on the Spinumviva affair. Prosecutors may have shelved the file, but the ethical shadow still looms—and it could shape how voters feel about State transparency, public money and the next five years at Belém.

Why It Matters Now

• Presidential scrutiny: A future head of state promises to keep the issue alive.

• Legal vs. moral: Criminal inquiries ended, yet doubts over conflict-of-interest rules persist.

• Policy stakes: Fresh casino licences, EU recovery funds and the credibility of a 2024 Code of Conduct are on the line.

The Candidate’s Charge

Speaking at a packed rally in Braga on Saturday night, centre-left contender António José Seguro argued that “a closed investigation is not the same as a clear conscience.” He claims the government never produced a full timeline of the Prime Minister’s family holdings, including consultancy payments that Spinumviva received while Montenegro was still a back-bench deputy and later opposition leader.

Seguro’s campaign has turned the point into a refrain: the presidency, he says, must be ready to demand total disclosure whenever public funds and private relatives intersect. Political analysts note the message resonates with younger voters who came of age during the Operação Marquês and still mistrust elite networks.

From Courtrooms to Commission Shelves

March 2025 – Former MEP Ana Gomes files a complaint, citing potential misuse of EU structural funds.

12 March – The DCIAP opens a “preventive inquiry.”

27 Nov 2025 – The European Public Prosecutor’s Office closes its probe, finding no evidence that Spinumviva rigged any Brussels-financed project.

1 Dec 2025 – DCIAP issues its final note: “não há notícia da prática de ilícito criminal.”

Legal experts, including administrative-law scholar Paulo Graça, insist the archives end the judicial path. Yet Graça concedes that “Portugal’s integrity rules do not stop at penal law,” stressing the Cabinet’s own Code requires ministers—and the Prime Minister above all—to avoid perceived partiality.

What Exactly Is Spinumviva?

• Family-run boutique consultancy, founded in 2012 by the Prime Minister’s sister and brother-in-law.

• Pivoted from marketing to public-affairs advice, specialising in gaming and tourism—the same sectors now awaiting a new round of casino concessions.

• Turnover under €5 M in 2024, according to last accounts filed at Portal da Empresa.

Although no public contracts between Spinumviva and the State surfaced between 2019-2025, opposition MPs highlight private retainers from the Solverde group while Montenegro was Solverde’s outside counsel. Critics consider that a textbook case of “revolving doors.”

Government Counter-Narrative

Montenegro’s press office stresses that he practiced law in the private sector long before entering São Bento. They underline three points:

• The Prime Minister has worked under an exclusivity regime since taking office in March 2024.

• He sought a PGR advisory opinion back in 2019 to map out any future incompatibilities.

• The Cabinet adopted Europe’s toughest transparency code in April 2024, obliging real-time disclosure of assets and kinship ties.

Still, parliamentary opposition parties Livre and Chega argue that only a full registry of all clients served by Spinumviva—both past and present—can clear the air.

Public Sentiment and the Polls

Surveys released this week show presidential preferences largely frozen, with Seguro and former navy chief Gouveia e Melo neck-and-neck. Yet 62 % of respondents tell pollster Aximage they feel “pouca ou nenhuma confiança” in the way high office handles conflicts of interest. Campaign strategists quietly admit the Spinumviva narrative could mobilise abstention-prone voters who value probity over ideology.

What Comes Next

The casino licence tender, delayed twice, is expected to reopen in February. If signed off by the Council of Ministers, Montenegro may need to recuse himself—otherwise critics will seize on any perceived favouritism. Meanwhile, parliament’s Committee on Transparency plans to revisit the Code of Conduct in early January, with proposals ranging from mandatory blind trusts to a five-year cooling-off period for commercial lawyering.

Bottom Line for Residents in Portugal

Whether you back Seguro, Montenegro’s preferred successor, or anyone else, the debate cuts deeper than party lines. It is about rebuilding confidence in how Lisbon manages your tax euros and EU funds. Presidential candidates can’t legislate, but they can veto, scrutinise and call out grey areas. Expect Spinumviva to remain shorthand for that wider demand: decisions made in the public interest, free of family entanglements.