Socialists’ Abstention Gives Chega Leverage on 2026 Budget Taxes and Nationality Law
Politics in Lisbon has entered one of those rare moments when the most important law of the year is guaranteed to pass, yet almost no-one claims victory. The Socialist Party’s decision to sit out the first vote on the Orçamento do Estado for 2026 secures the minority government a breathing space. At the same time, it opens a lane for André Ventura and Chega to demand concessions on taxes, pensions and border rules—and to test how far mainstream parties are willing to travel to avoid another budget stalemate.
A budget that survives on abstentions
Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento unveiled the spending plan trimmed of the most contentious reforms: no shake-up of public pensions, no overhaul of labour law, and no dramatic shift in NHS-style health funding. That pruning made it easier for the PS to announce an abstention and for the far-right Chega to keep the door open. The arithmetic is simple—together the two opposition forces hold enough seats to sink the bill, but neither wants to be blamed for a crisis on the eve of the 2026 municipal campaign.
Still, Chega intends to lodge “hundreds of amendment proposals”. Party strategists say they will zero in on the price of fuel, a hike in the tax-free ceiling for small businesses, and a tougher stance on contributory fraud in Social Security. Politologists at NOVA University note that the budget is turning into a “shopping list” where Ventura hopes to extract at least a symbolic win that he can package for the electorate.
Ventura’s climb from protest to power broker
Less than two years ago Chega walked away from talks on the 2025 budget in protest at what it called “secret side-deals” between the governing AD coalition and the Socialists. That stunt looked reckless at the time; today, with Chega now the second-largest parliamentary force and freshly installed in its first city hall in Entroncamento, the calculus has changed. Ventura vows to show that his party can be “constructive”, but continues to portray the PS abstention as “proof of irrelevance for the ordinary voter”.
The optics matter. October’s by-election successes strengthened a narrative that Chega is no longer a fringe actor. Inside PSD headquarters, senior figures admit that a minority government gives them cover to negotiate on a case-by-case basis, using PS or Chega support depending on the file. The risk, analysts warn, is that voters could punish what they perceive as ideological elasticity in next year’s local contests.
Socialists navigate a narrow corridor
José Luís Carneiro, recently confirmed as PS secretary-general, keeps drawing a red line: “No pacts with extremist forces.” Yet in practice the abstention strategy means the party is now crucial to the very survival of measures it claims to despise. Carneiro tells reporters the move shows “institutional responsibility” and insists that any Chega influence will be “filtered” in committee. But conservative commentators are already teasing the Socialists for giving Ventura a seat at the adults’ table while still preaching anti-populist virtue.
Nationality rules: the next flashpoint
The first real-world test of this uneasy geometry arrived with the overhaul of the Lei da Nacionalidade. The revised text extends the residency requirement to 7 years for citizens of the EU and Portuguese-speaking countries, and 10 for everyone else. Chega tacked on demands to strip nationality from people convicted of terrorism or aggravated homicide and to restrict jus soli for newborns unless one parent has lived legally in Portugal for at least 5 years.
Initially the PS voted against; later it shifted to an abstention that let the article pass. Constitutional lawyers are already lining up to challenge parts of the package, predicting a referral to the Constitutional Court. Whatever the legal outcome, the episode underscores how Chega’s agenda is shaping the legislative calendar despite public vows of isolation.
Why it matters beyond the São Bento bubble
For households, the most immediate stakes reside in the budget amendments still on the table. Chega wants a flat €0.20 cut in fuel excise, a 2-point drop in IRS for middle-income brackets, and an extra €50 per month for pensions below €600. The PS, for its part, is pressing for a guaranteed public management of Social Security funds and new limits on private-sector outsourcing in hospitals. Whether any of that survives the Finance Ministry’s red pens will determine if the final document feels like a routine rollover or a genuine shift in economic priorities.
The road ahead
Committee-stage wrangling begins next week, and the government targets final approval before Christmas. All sides recognise that forcing an early election would likely backfire—no party is polling above 30 %, and municipal races loom large in the spring. In the short term, expect nightly headlines about amendment counts and last-minute trade-offs. In the longer arc, the 2026 budget saga will be remembered for one thing: how an abstention intended to marginalise a rival instead gave that rival a chance to rewrite the very rules of the game.