Real Madrid Lose Four Starters; Benfica vs Real Madrid Ticket Prices Fall in Lisbon

Real Madrid will land in Lisbon without Éder Militão, Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo and Raúl Asencio, a quadruple setback that suddenly makes Benfica’s playoff opener look far less daunting for the home crowd.

Why This Matters

• Four starters missing – hamstring injuries and UEFA bans sideline two defenders, a play-maker and a winger.

• Mbappé cleared – the French star trained and is expected to start, preserving Real’s fire-power.

• First leg tonight at Estádio da Luz – tickets on the secondary market have already fallen by roughly 12 % after the absences were confirmed.

• Return leg on 25 February in Madrid – away-goals rule abolished; aggregate score alone decides who faces Manchester City or Sporting CP.

Who’s Out – And When They Return

Real Madrid’s medical bulletin became the best read in Lisbon the moment it dropped on Monday afternoon.

• Éder Militão – torn biceps femoris in early December, pencilled in for a late-March return; still two weeks from full-contact drills.

• Jude Bellingham – setback in the semitendinosus muscle means 6-8 weeks out; could miss El Clásico in April.

• Rodrygo – minor tendinopathy would have healed by this weekend, but a two-match Champions League suspension pushes his comeback to the quarter-finals at the earliest.

• Raúl Asencio – served a ban after two yellows and is nursing a hairline tibia fracture; club doctors ruled out any chance of risking him on Luz’s heavy winter pitch.

The timing leaves Álvaro Arbeloa with only three senior centre-backs and no natural right-winger.

What Real Madrid Still Brings

Anyone expecting a depleted side should remember the names still on the plane: Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Fede Valverde, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Thibaut Courtois. Mbappé was rested against Real Sociedad as “a precaution” for groin tightness; club insiders insist he completed Monday’s full session at Valdebebas without limitation.

Bench depth remains eye-catching. Arda Güler – described by Portuguese scouts as “a left-footed Modrić in the making” – could see extended minutes, while Franco Mastantuono and Gonzalo García give Arbeloa teenage options if the match becomes a sprint late on.

Arbeloa’s Likely Tweaks

With Militão out, sources close to the Spain-based analytics firm Driblab expect a temporary switch from 4-3-3 to 4-4-2, pairing Antonio Rüdiger and David Alaba centrally. The extra midfielder should help smother Fredrik Aursnes and Orkun Kökçü, Benfica’s main distributors.

On the flanks, Trent Alexander-Arnold is tipped to start high and wide, with Dani Carvajal possibly sliding to the left to keep Alexander-Arnold’s crossing threat on the pitch without overloading fitness-fragile Ferland Mendy. In possession, watch for gegenpressing triggers around João Neves; Real’s analysts identified the 19-year-old as Benfica’s most turnover-prone passer under high pressure.

Benfica’s Frame of Mind

Roger Schmidt is long gone; José Mourinho commands the dugout now and hasn’t forgotten January’s 4-2 thriller that shoved Marseille out of Europe. Mourinho demands vertical transitions and will again lean on Anatoliy Trubin’s shot-stopping to weather early Madrid pressure. Club staff say Vangelis Pavlidis – scorer in that previous meeting – is fully fit after a slight ankle knock and trained with the main group on Monday evening.

What This Means for Residents

• Ticket market – Prices on platforms such as Seetickets.pt dropped after the injury news; locals looking for last-minute seats can now find upper-tier spots for around €65, down from €74 last week.

• Transport & policing – The Lisbon Metropolitan Police Command anticipates 3 000 travelling Madridistas and will extend the metro’s red line frequency until 01:00. Expect traffic restrictions on Av. General Norton de Matos from 17:00.

• Hospitality sector – Hoteliers near Campo Pequeno report a 92 % occupancy rate; however, cancellations spiked slightly after Bellingham’s absence was confirmed. If you own short-let property, consider a late discount – demand is still robust, just less feverish.

• Betting & viewing – National bookmakers such as Placard.pt shortened Benfica’s odds to qualify from 3.20 to 2.75. Pubs in the Bairro Alto are advertising 2-for-1 during the first half; expect packed houses despite a Tuesday kickoff.

The Wider Picture

The abolition of the away-goals rule means any narrow Benfica win tonight would carry straight-line value; a 1-0 is now as good as 4-2. Yet Madrid’s bench quality suggests Mourinho’s side need a cushion before the Bernabéu return.

Financially, reaching the round of 16 adds roughly €9.6 M in prize money plus gate receipts – enough to cover Benfica’s annual youth academy budget. For Real, early elimination would not break the bank, but club insiders fear it could accelerate looming wage-bill cuts mandated by La Liga’s new cost-control targets.

Bottom line? Four big-name absences tilt momentum toward Benfica, but Mbappé under the Luz floodlights remains a storyline capable of wiping out every Portuguese calculation in a heartbeat.