Portugal's Prime Minister Fronts PSD Campaign to Secure Stability

Portugal's centre-right government is suddenly everywhere on the presidential campaign trail. And while some critics raise eyebrows, the man at the centre of the controversy – candidate Luís Marques Mendes – insists the daily presence of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro at rallies is nothing more than democracy at work. Behind the photo-ops lies an urgent calculation: holding the presidency and the São Bento Palace at the same time could shield the coalition from turbulence and, perhaps, spare the country another early general election.

At a glance: why it matters

• Montenegro’s stage time is aimed at propelling Marques Mendes into the Belém Palace on 18 January 2026.

• The PSD-CDS leadership hopes a first-round victory will block a potential populist runoff.

• Polls still show a four-way technical tie; no clear payoff from the prime minister’s appearances yet.

• Critics warn the tactic may blur the line between government work and party campaigning, risking fatigue among swing voters.

The calculus behind Montenegro’s visibility

The prime minister has spent the first week of the new year criss-crossing the country, trading policy briefings for parish-hall stump speeches. Inside PSD headquarters the logic is straightforward: by lending the government’s gravitas to the campaign, Montenegro reinforces the message that a vote for Marques Mendes is a vote for institutional stability. Party strategists privately admit they fear a second round that could pit two anti-system figures against each other, a prospect they see as "the Italian scenario".

Montenegro’s own standing encourages this tactic. Recent surveys by the University of Coimbra Barometer give him 53 % approval – still the highest among party leaders – allowing him to campaign without dragging down the ticket. "We are not importing partisanship into the presidency; we are exporting moderation into the race," a senior PSD aide told reporters after a rally in Braga.

What Marques Mendes gains from the alliance

For the former party president turned TV commentator, the embrace of the sitting prime minister is both shield and sword. In Aveiro, Marques Mendes joked that having Montenegro on stage "spares me from describing my curriculum – everyone knows who I am because he keeps saying it." Beyond humour, the candidate wins three concrete advantages:

Fund-raising muscle: business donors on the centre-right are more willing to write cheques when the prime minister is in the room.

Media oxygen: evening news bulletins rarely lead with campaigns, but the presence of a head of government turns local events into national headlines.

Party discipline: PSD mayors who flirted with endorsing independents have fallen in line after a single phone call from São Bento.

Still, there is a trade-off. Every time Montenegro appears, the spotlight drifts from constitutional issues to partisan score-settling – territory where a would-be President of all Portuguese is less comfortable.

Government business on hold?

Opposition parties spent the week accusing the prime minister of "tourism". Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos claimed Montenegro had "substituted the Council of Ministers for campaign committees"; Chega’s André Ventura went further, arguing the country "is run on autopilot while the PSD saves its candidate". Official schedules show that four cabinet meetings were postponed in the past month, though ministers insist legislative deadlines were met.

Economists note that the optics matter. If the government fails to present a credible 2027 Budget by October, it could revive speculation about snap legislative elections – precisely the outcome the ruling coalition says it wants to avoid.

Voter reaction: enthusiasm, doubt, or indifference?

So far, polls suggest the prime minister’s roadshow is neither a silver bullet nor a boomerang:

• An ICS/ISCTE survey released Tuesday keeps Marques Mendes at 24 %, statistically tied with António José Seguro (23 %), Henrique Gouveia e Melo (22 %) and André Ventura (21 %). The margin of error is 2.9 %.• Asked whether Montenegro’s involvement makes them more likely to vote for Mendes, 18 % said more likely, 21 % less likely, and 55 % "makes no difference".• Among undecided voters, the prime minister’s presence registers only 4 % on the scale of factors influencing choice, behind TV debates and cost-of-living concerns.

Political scientist Marina Costa Lobo cautions that "endorsements rarely move mountains in Portuguese presidential races; charisma and independence matter more." Yet she adds that the strategy could "nudge moderates who fear polarisation into voting early and decisively".

The road between now and 18 January

With twelve days of campaigning left, PSD headquarters has pencilled in nine joint events featuring Montenegro and Marques Mendes, including a Lisbon rally expected to draw 10 000 supporters. The candidate’s team is fine-tuning a closing message centred on "experience, moderation and reform", while the prime minister plans to unveil a long-delayed health-care modernisation decree to blunt criticism that governing has stalled.

If the bet pays off and Marques Mendes wins outright in the first round, Montenegro will claim a double mandate – parliamentary and presidential – to push through flagship reforms on housing and education. Should the race head into a runoff, analysts predict an abrupt course correction, with the prime minister retreating from the limelight to avoid appearing to politicise the presidency further.

Either way, Portugal’s electorate has been handed an unusual spectacle: a sitting prime minister acting as warm-up act for a presidential hopeful. Whether voters see it as business as usual or political overreach will be clear when ballots are counted.