Portugal's Palestine Plan: A US & Israel Coordinated Strategy

Portugal's sudden rush to recognise a Palestinian state is not the unilateral, pro-Palestinian gesture it appears to be. Instead, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s push for a national consensus is a calculated step in a surprisingly complex diplomatic manoeuvre. According to senior diplomats, this shift is part of a broad, US-led strategy being quietly coordinated not only with Arab capitals but also with Benjamin Netanyahu's office in Jerusalem. The goal is to use European recognition of Palestine as a key component in a larger regional reset that benefits Israeli security.

A US-Brokered Triangle: Washington, Jerusalem, and Arab Capitals

The choreography for this policy pivot is not originating in Brussels. It is being shaped within a trans-Atlantic triangle that connects Donald Trump’s White House, Jerusalem, and key Arab capitals. While Washington publicly dismisses recognition as a “reward for Hamas,” back-channel communications describe a strategy of “quiet coordination.” This plan trades European endorsements of Palestinian statehood for two major Israeli and US objectives: tougher Arab action to disarm and isolate Hamas, and the consolidation of an Arab-Israeli security bloc to contain Iran.

The Quid Pro Quo: Statehood for Security

This new dynamic was visible when Riyadh’s foreign minister arrived in New York with a joint Saudi-French text. For the first time, the document carried the entire Arab League’s signature condemning the October 7th massacre and, crucially, demanding Hamas’s disarmament as a pre-condition for statehood. In the eyes of Gulf states and their Western partners, granting symbolic statehood to Palestinians is the final piece needed to fully realise the Trump-era Abraham Accords. It provides a framework for an Arab-Israeli alliance that opens trade and secures the region.

Coordination in Action: Aid Drops Agreed with the IDF

The on-the-ground cooperation with Israel is already happening in plain sight. Jordanian and Emirati C-130s are conducting daily aid drops over Gaza, but these are not rogue missions. According to Reuters and Sky News, the food pallets are dropped during 10-hour “tactical pauses” and their landing zones are pre-agreed directly with Israeli military commanders, bypassing UNRWA entirely. “No detours via UNRWA, no Hamas tax,” a UAE official boasted, highlighting a level of direct logistical coordination with Israel that was previously unthinkable.

An Economic Corridor Through Israel

The economic incentives are designed to solidify this alliance, with Israel as a key hub. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), revived in April, plans to funnel Asian cargo through an upgraded Saudi-Jordan-Israel railway line. Containers would then be loaded onto European freighters in the Israeli port of Haifa, shaving 40% off Suez transit times. For Portugal, which markets its port of Sines as an Atlantic gateway, linking into a trade route that runs directly through Israel is a significant strategic prize.

Lisbon’s Calculus: Aligning with the New Consensus

For Portugal, joining this wave is no longer about simply following France or Spain. It is about aligning with a new, powerful consensus. Portuguese officials argue that recognition, under these specific terms, achieves multiple goals. It keeps Lisbon at the main table of Middle East diplomacy and appeases Arab investors. Most importantly, it allows Portugal to signal balance by coupling recognition with an explicit pledge to Israel’s security, a commitment already drafted in a foreign ministry memo and central to the entire coordinated effort.

What Could Derail the Deal?

The plan’s greatest vulnerability lies within Israel itself. Knesset backlash remains a potent threat, as Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners could torpedo his government if he formally blesses any move perceived as a step towards a Palestinian state. The deal is also susceptible to Trumpian trade sticks against allies seen as moving too quickly, and to European disunity, should Berlin’s reluctance to join the wave give other sceptics cover to stall.

The Bottom Line

If Montenegro succeeds, Portugal will enter the UN General Assembly not as a follower, but as a key player in a major diplomatic realignment. The strategy pitches recognition of Palestine as the very move that secures Israeli interests, locks in Arab innovation, and solidifies Western diplomacy. As one senior official put it, the path to this new digital and economic revolution “goes through Ramallah, Riyadh and, yes, Ra’anana.” The success of this surprising gambit may depend less on politics in Lisbon and more on the stability of this new, undeclared alliance.