Portugal’s NATO Debate: What the Presidential Race Means for Energy Bills and Jobs

Portugal’s next head of state will almost certainly keep the country firmly anchored inside the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, yet the campaign now under way has broadened the debate far beyond the usual military talking points. Voters are discovering that the familiar acronym NATO also shapes energy prices, fiscal choices and Lisbon’s global reputation—and that the candidate leading the polls, António José Seguro, is betting on diplomacy, not fire-power, to navigate the world’s flash-points.

Snapshot for the busy reader

• Seguro wants Portugal to stay in NATO but insists conflicts must be settled "by peaceful and diplomatic means".

• Lisbon is on course to hit the 2 %-of-GDP defence spending target in 2025 after years of lagging behind its allies.

• Political rivals from the far left to the new right are split: some flirt with quitting NATO; others demand more troops abroad.

• NATO’s deputy chief praised Portugal this month for its support to Ukraine and for hosting Atlantic exercises.

• Experts warn that creative accounting still inflates the numbers Portugal sends to Brussels and masks gaps in equipment.

Why the Alliance still counts on Lisbon

From the submarine cables snaking out of the Azores archipelago to the Lajes air base that once fuelled airlifts to Afghanistan, Portugal’s territory remains a strategic hinge between the United States and continental Europe. The country was a founding signatory of the 1949 treaty and, despite the Revolution of 1974 and regular bouts of anti-military sentiment, every government since has judged that the security shield outweighs the costs. Radmila Shekerinska, NATO’s Deputy Secretary-General, drove the point home during a January visit to Lisbon, praising Portuguese sailors patrolling the Mediterranean and F-16 pilots training Ukrainian aviators.

Money on the table: chasing 2 %

The last State Budget sets defence outlays at €6.1 B for 2026, a jump that Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento says will push spending to the coveted 2 % of GDP mark a year earlier than Brussels expected. Part of the increase comes from new frigates and cyber-defence units, but watchdogs note that pensions and GNR border patrols are still booked as “defence”—a practice the Atlantic Council once called “Portuguese ingenuity.” The ministry has promised to publish a break-down before the next NATO summit in Washington.

Ballot-box ripples: Seguro and his challengers

Seguro’s centrist line—"partners for security, diplomacy for peace"—has cornered his opponents into clarifying their own red lines. Former admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo backs sending combat engineers to Ukraine, while liberal candidate João Cotrim de Figueiredo proposes tax incentives for defence start-ups. On the other flank, the Bloco de Esquerda and the Communist Party still dream of withdrawing from NATO but, paradoxically, have urged their supporters to back Seguro in the run-off to block a populist surge by André Ventura.

Diplomats rather than drones

Portuguese foreign-policy DNA leans toward mediation and multilateral deals—from the 1992 Mozambique peace accord to discreet shuttle diplomacy inside the CPLP. Seguro vows to revive that tradition by calling a special leaders’ meeting on the Greenland resource race and by strengthening the EU’s common foreign policy so that "Europe speaks with one voice on the UN Security Council." Analysts say the pledge resonates with a war-weary electorate that remembers the financial crisis of 2011 and prefers consensus to confrontation.

Expert voices: applause, but not blank cheques

Military historian Nuno Severiano Teixeira applauds the extra euros but warns that "modern kit, not payroll tricks, deters aggressors." Defence economist Ana Santos Pinto points out that a single submarine-rescue vessel would safeguard both civilian shipping lanes and NATO missions. Conversely, former NATO ambassador Luís Valença dismisses calls to exit the alliance as "geostrategic karaoke" that would leave Portugal paying more for the same security under an EU-only banner.

What’s in it for households?

No Portuguese taxpayer will confuse the defence debate with the price of sardines, yet the linkage is clear: bulk fuel contracts for the navy help stabilise diesel prices, military satellite coverage improves civilian telecoms, and defence-tech incubators in Covilhã and Aveiro are already minting high-skill jobs. Whether Seguro or another contender wins the Belém Palace, Lisbon’s bet is that investing in collective defence and championing diplomacy is not a contradiction—it is Portugal’s traditional formula for punching above its weight on the world stage.