Portugal’s Five-Year Golden Visa Path Secured—Yet Rule Rewrite Awaits

A moment of relief – but not yet of rest – for the thousands of families who poured capital into Portugal’s Golden Visa: the Constitutional Court has trimmed the most controversial edges of the new Nationality Law, yet the decisive word now moves back to Parliament. Investors keep their current five-year route to citizenship for the moment, while lawmakers haggle over fresh amendments that could still rewrite the rules in early 2026.

Why people in Portugal should care

• Foreign capital still fuels jobs and tax revenue, especially in second-tier cities now courting fund-based investment.

• Legal ping-pong over the residency-to-citizenship clock affects Portugal’s credibility with international markets – and with the EU, which watches golden-passport schemes closely.

• Local housing pressure has eased since the 2023 real-estate option was abolished, but community groups fear a comeback if Parliament fumbles the rewrite.

What the judges actually decided

The 13-member bench struck down four of seven articles in the draft overhaul, invoking the constitutional principles of legal certainty and legitimate expectations. Crucially, the Court confirmed two points investors had lobbied for:

Counting the mandatory residency period from the moment a residence card is issued is constitutionally acceptable.

New criteria may apply only prospectively; pending files must stay under the rules that existed when they were lodged.

Everything else – fairness of processing times, economic side-effects, even human-resource shortages at the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA) – lay outside the Court’s narrow remit.

Four clauses sent back to the drawing board

Lawmakers must now rebuild provisions that were deemed unconstitutional for being either automatic or retroactive:

• Criminal-record vetoes without a proportional, case-by-case check.• Open-ended reasons that let authorities oppose naturalisation with vague wording.• Loss of nationality for fraud perpetrated by third parties, even when the applicant had no role.• Retroactive application of tougher rules to files already in the pipeline.

Until replacement text clears both chambers and the president’s desk, the existing Nationality Act of 2018 stays in force.

The unresolved question: five, seven or ten years?

The Court deliberately avoided ruling on the proposed jump from five to ten years of legal residence (or seven for CPLP nationals). That fight is political, not constitutional. Socialist deputies hint at a compromise around seven years, while centre-right parties warn that moving the goalposts could “torpedo investor confidence” at a time when Portugal needs private capital to offset higher borrowing costs.

AIMA’s backlog by the numbers

The agency that replaced SEF in late 2023 still wades through mountains of old files:

– 45,000 Golden Visa requests awaiting analysis in June 2025.– Average wait: 12–24 months from online submission to the first card in hand.– Biometrics slots now book out to March 2026 despite a new auto-scheduling tool.– The agency hired 300 staff this year and promises a fully digital portal in January, but lawyers note that legacy cases remain on the old platform.

Economic and reputational stakes

Business lobbies warn that every month of limbo chips away at Portugal’s image as a rule-of-law haven. Fund managers report that, while 2025 saw a record €5 B in visa-linked inflows, new leads are asking harder questions about exit timelines. Opposition parties on the left dismiss those fears, arguing the programme’s job-creation claims are “inflated” and urging a sunset clause altogether.

What to expect next in São Bento Palace

Parliament has until the end of the winter session to re-draft the rejected clauses. Observers see three possible scenarios:

Swift patch-up – minor tweaks preserve the five-year rule; investors breathe easy.

Grand bargain – seven-year citizenship, stricter due-diligence filters, and an explicit backlog amnesty.

Legislative gridlock – early elections or another presidential veto extend uncertainty into 2027.

Either way, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa insists he will not sign off on text that “undermines constitutional predictability.”

Navigating the limbo: practical tips

– Keep residence cards current; automatic extensions run only through 30 June 2026.– File renewals online as soon as the portal opens; slots fill within hours.– Consolidate proof of physical presence in Portugal (bank statements, boarding passes) – future rules may demand stricter evidence.– Consider diversifying investments: fund-based options now account for 50 % of approvals and face fewer political headwinds than real estate.

The Court’s ruling may have shut the door on retroactive surprises, but the hallway ahead is long and winding. For now, Portugal’s celebrated five-year path to a passport survives – with an asterisk that only Parliament can erase, rewrite or, perhaps, underline in the months to come.