Portugal’s exporters lose €50M to US tariffs, get €10B lifeline

Portugal’s exporters are feeling a chill from across the Atlantic. Shipments to the United States slid again in the third quarter, erasing €50 M in sales and widening the trade-policy rift that has dogged bilateral commerce all year. Officials in Lisbon insist the setback is temporary—but firms that rely on American demand are scrambling for new strategies.

At a Glance

• €50 M quarterly decline in goods sold to the US, the lowest level since mid-2023

• 6.8 % drop in cumulative exports to America between January and September

• Tariff uncertainty: base duties of 15 % on most EU goods, 50 % on steel and aluminium

• Fuel, machinery and transport equipment led the contraction; chemicals and pharmaceuticals also under pressure

• Government launches Programa Reforçar, a €10 B rescue package for exporters

• Despite the slide, the US remained Portugal’s 4th-largest customer, absorbing 6.2 % of all goods sold abroad

A Sudden Dip Across the Atlantic

According to fresh tables from the National Statistics Institute (INE), merchandise exports to the United States shrank to just over €3 billion in July–September, down €50 M from the same quarter a year earlier and €13 M below the previous quarter. While the absolute values still exceed pre-pandemic norms, analysts note that the pace of contraction has accelerated every month since April.

Tariffs Take Centre Stage

Executives blame the reversal on the tariff regime Washington revived this summer. Under a July compromise with Brussels, a 15 % blanket duty now applies to most European products entering the US—from wine to semiconductors—while punitive 50 % levies on steel and aluminium remain in force. Portuguese customs brokers say the higher paperwork burden and the prospect of further political swings are forcing importers to defer orders. “Our clients in Texas simply won’t sign six-month contracts when tomorrow’s rate is a guess,” one logistics director told the Observer.

What’s Actually Falling Off the Ship?

INE’s product-level breakdown is revealing:

• Combustibles and lubricants: sales to the US plunged 33.6 % in the first nine months, mirroring production cuts at the Matosinhos refinery.• Industrial machinery & consumer durables: down 10.3 %, hurt by weaker orders for sub-assemblies used in American car plants.• Transport equipment: minus 5.5 %, a setback for northern suppliers of bus chassis and railway components.• Pharmaceuticals suffered a double hit: tariffs plus a slowdown in contract-manufacturing deals that do not involve title transfer, which Portuguese statisticians no longer book as exports.

Government Fires Back

Lisbon is betting on scale. The recently approved Programa Reforçar funnels €10 B into a cocktail of credit lines, guarantees and grants intended to bolster overseas sales:

• €5.185 B in working-capital loans from Banco Português de Fomento

• A fresh €3.5 B export window, with €400 M in outright grants

• €1.2 B top-up to export-credit insurance so firms can pitch riskier buyers

• A €200 M Portugal 2030 incentive scheme, 75 % earmarked for SMEs seeking new markets

Business federations welcomed the cash but warned that paperwork must not swallow the benefit. “If a small textile house in Guimarães needs three consultants just to file, the money stays on paper,” the Associação Empresarial de Portugal (AEP) argued during a recent Chicago–New York trade mission.

Comparisons Closer to Home

The US slump contrasts with a resilient European core. Within the EU, Portuguese exports slipped only 0.3 % in the quarter and actually leapt 14.3 % in September, fuelled by chemicals to Germany. Brazil’s data are patchier, but macro indicators show that Brazilian demand for Portuguese goods held steady, supported by Lusophone investment projects in renewable energy.

What Portuguese Firms Are Doing on the Ground

Facing steeper tariffs, many companies are tweaking supply chains rather than abandoning the US altogether. A cork-producer in Santa Maria da Feira shifted final finishing to a partner in Georgia to qualify for “last-mile” rules of origin, while an Aveiro boat-builder now ships knock-down kits to Florida for assembly by local dealers. These work-arounds, executives say, keep margins thin but doors open.

AmCham Portugal and the Porto Commercial Association have also stepped up “Export to the USA” roadshows, coaching SMEs on legal compliance and cross-docking routes through East Coast ports.

Outlook: Headwinds or Passing Squall?

Economists at Banco de Portugal argue the contraction could bottom out next spring if the tariff schedule stabilises and the dollar remains near its current high. Yet much hinges on the 2026 US electoral cycle; further protectionist signals would likely prolong the malaise. For now, the message to Portuguese exporters is clear: bank on agility, diversification and financial cushions if they hope to keep the American market on the map.