Portugal’s EuroBasket hope rides on lunchtime showdown with Estonia

Portugal’s men’s basketball squad enters a make-or-break afternoon in Riga, needing nothing less than victory to prolong its stay at EuroBasket 2025. A defeat would send the team—and the sizeable community of fans back home—to an early exit, wiping away the momentum that grew after Portugal’s first appearance at the tournament in almost seven decades. Tip-off against Estonia is booked for 12:45 in Lisbon (14:45 local), and for anyone watching from a Portuguese café or an Airbnb living room, the duel will be live on RTP2.

What’s at Stake in Riga

A win secures the last ticket from Group A into the round-of-16, joining heavyweights Serbia, Turkey and host Latvia. Both Portugal and Estonia carry identical 1-3 records, so the confrontation functions as a single-game playoff: whoever leaves the Arena Riga floor on top keeps dreaming of a quarter-final in Katowice, whoever falters packs for home. Tournament rules list head-to-head results as the first tiebreaker, but that bookkeeping only matters if the game ends in a bizarre double forfeit. In practical terms, simple victory equals survival, every other scenario equals elimination.

How to Watch from Portugal or Abroad

Lisbon residents can catch the broadcast on free-to-air RTP2, while cable and IPTV packages often simulcast the signal in HD. Travelling fans within the EU can lean on their streaming subscriptions thanks to the bloc’s portability regulation, which obliges providers to allow access across member-states. Anyone already in Latvia can still find last-minute tickets on the FIBA website, though resale platforms have started charging north of €60 as Portuguese supporters scramble for seats.

Meet the Key Players

The centrepiece of the roster is Neemias Queta, the 2.13 m Boston Celtics big man whose 15.0 points and 8.5 rebounds per outing have kept Portugal competitive against elite fronts. Back-court orchestration sits with Rafael Lisboa, averaging 3.3 assists while relieving veteran Diogo Ventura. Estonia counters with sharpshooter Kristian Kullamae—13.0 points, 5.0 assists—and rangy forward Siim-Sander Vene, whose EuroLeague seasoning offers battle-tested calm. If Queta controls the paint and Portugal’s outside gunners punish the Estonian zone, the Iberian side’s odds soar; let Kullamae heat up from deep, and the equation flips instantly.

Portugal’s Road So Far

Group play opened with a gritty 78-73 triumph over the Czech Republic, Portugal’s first EuroBasket win since 1951. The euphoria evaporated during consecutive defeats to Turkey (92-64), Serbia (101-70) and Latvia (88-77), results that exposed the gap between emerging programmes and perennial medal contenders. Still, head coach Mário Gomes insisted the learning curve hardened his men for “the real final”—today’s showdown. The squad has logged just 12 turnovers per game, a surprisingly clean number given the opposition’s pressure schemes, but rebounding margins remain negative at ‑7.5.

Estonia’s Counterargument

The Baltic side travelled to Latvia by bus, a two-hour hop that kept routine intact after group fixtures in Tallinn. Head coach Jukka Toijala built Estonia’s system around pace, trailing only Serbia in fast-break points within Group A. Their own résumé mirrors Portugal’s: a single victory (versus the Czechs) and three defeats, including a painful overtime heart-breaker to Latvia that put extra mileage on legs now needed for this decider. Estonia shoots 38 % from beyond the arc—top-6 across the entire tournament—so every Portuguese close-out must arrive on time.

Strategic Match-ups to Track

Queta’s duel with 2.09 m Maik-Kalev Kotsar could dictate interior supremacy; whichever pivot avoids foul trouble will probably log 30+ minutes. On the perimeter, watch youthful swingman André Cruz chase Kullamae through endless off-ball screens, a stamina test comparable to a Lisbon half-marathon. Offensively, Portugal’s success might hinge on open-court opportunities: when Gomes’s men score more than 12 fast-break points, they have yet to lose in 2025 fixtures.

Beyond the Court: Why EuroBasket Matters for Expats

For foreigners building a life in Portugal, national-team moments offer a window into the country’s collective psyche. In cafés from Braga to the Algarve, expect TVs set to RTP2, customers ordering bicas on repeat, and spontaneous choreography of claps whenever Queta throws down a dunk. Cheering alongside locals can break linguistic barriers faster than any language app, and understanding the pride attached to rare appearances at European championships helps newcomers grasp Portugal’s broader sporting narrative—one that stretches well beyond the omnipresent curse of football.

The Bottom Line

Portugal controls its destiny. Win, and the calendar extends at least two more days. Lose, and an encouraging tournament debut after 74 years becomes a footnote. For expats and longtime residents alike, the lunchtime tip-off offers a shared appointment with national ambition; by late afternoon, everyone will know whether September evenings will still be narrated by the squeak of sneakers and the chant Portugal, olé!