Portugal’s Bettors Wager €504 M in Q3 2025 as Margins Tighten Ahead of 2026 Tax

A summer defined by continental football finals and the back-to-school tennis Grand Slams has pushed Portugal’s online betting habit to new heights – but even record-hunting punters could not stop margins from shrinking. The latest batch of figures from the national regulator sketches a portrait of a mature yet still expanding industry that now rivals cinema and streaming combined in money spent.

Snapshot of a thriving market

• €504.6 M wagered between July and September, eclipsing every other quarter of 2025 so far.

• Year-on-year growth of 4.4 % versus Q3 2024.

• 71.8 % of all stakes landed on football competitions; 22.1 % went to tennis.

• 99.7 M in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for sports bets, below the first two quarters despite higher turnover.

• 18 licensed operators hold 32 active permits, 13 of which are specifically for fixed-odds sports.

Why the turnover keeps climbing

Industry analysts describe a “perfect cocktail” of mobile-first platforms, live streaming and aggressive odds boosts. Faster 5G networks mean livestreamed matches load with little delay, encouraging impulse wagers. Meanwhile, operators dangle personalised push notifications and instant cash-out tools that shorten the life cycle of each bet, encouraging repeat play.Market researcher Hugo Amaral notes that Portuguese consumers are “behaving more like Northern Europeans – multi-screening, betting in-play, withdrawing and staking again within the same match.”

Football reigns, but tennis courts earn their stripes

Champions League qualifiers, Primeira Liga derbies and a blockbuster transfer window combined to keep football’s grip on the betting wallet. The lion’s share of action flowed through Benfica’s early-season surge and Porto’s European ties.Tennis, however, punched above its weight: the US Open and Wimbledon together generated more than one-fifth of Q3 stakes. Operators credit a younger demographic lured by stat-rich interfaces and point-by-point markets that mirror the pace of social media.

Turnover up, margins down

Higher volumes did not translate into record earnings for the house. GGR from sports fell to €99.7 M, roughly 13 % below Q1. Two reasons dominate backstage chatter: favourite-heavy football results that favoured punters, and fiercer competition among bookmakers, who trimmed their over-rounds to single digits during marquee fixtures.Still, overall online gambling income—which lumps together casino, poker and bingo—grew 11.6 % versus the same stretch of 2024, cushioning the dip on the sports side.

Regulators tighten the bolts, not the brakes

The Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ) spent much of the year refining licence audits and blocking unapproved sites. Rather than choking off growth, enforcement appears to have funneled casual bettors toward the legal market, improving visibility on transactions.Debate is now swirling over a Finance-ministry proposal to tax players’ net winnings above €500 per year from 2026. Operators warn that steep taxes could nudge high-rollers offshore, yet public-health advocates argue taxation is another lever for responsible-gaming controls.

What Portugal-based punters and investors should track next

Barring a GDP shock, insiders expect 2025 to close just shy of the €2 B turnover line for sports alone. The variables to watch:

La Liga and Premier League broadcast deals—will easier access drive even more in-play volume?

The rollout of AI-driven affordability checks, already piloted by two Portuguese brands.

Lisbon’s stance on the proposed winnings tax, which could reshape VIP behaviour overnight.One thing is clear: Portugal’s betting story has moved from fledgling curiosity to heavyweight sector in under a decade—and the pressure is now on policymakers to let it grow without letting it gamble with public welfare.