Portugal Strike Notices Hit Lowest Level Since 2020 as New Law Looms

The Portugal Labour Ministry has confirmed a steep 23.7% fall in strike notices during 2025, pushing the total down to 839 – the lightest workload for mediators since the pandemic year of 2020. The decline looks positive at first glance, yet the bulk of the walk-out warnings still hit public hospitals, classrooms and municipal services that families rely on daily.

Why This Matters

• Fewer sudden shutdowns – rail delays and school closures were less frequent than in 2024, saving commuters and parents both money and hassle.

• Public sector still tense – 78.8% of all notices came from state-run entities, so reduced figures do not mean labour peace inside the Serviço Nacional de Saúde (SNS) or public schools.

• New strike-law overhaul on the table – the Government wants tougher rules on minimum services; unions vow more action if that happens.

• Budget planning tip – strike-related childcare or travel refunds are becoming rarer, but remain a realistic line item for 2026 if talks break down.

Where the Drop Happened

After peaking at 1,495 notices in 2023, Portugal saw the first pullback in 2024 (1,099 notices). Last year’s slide to 839 consolidates the reversal. The Directorate-General for Employment and Labour Relations (DGERT) attributes the easing to mid-term deals with teachers, nurses and civil servants that were signed in late 2024, plus fresh cash injections for public sector pay.

Sector breakdown for 2025:

• Healthcare: prolonged but more "surgical" stoppages; doctors opted for rolling departmental strikes rather than blanket walkouts.

• Education: FENPROF’s long-running overtime boycott replaced full-day closures, helping keep numbers down.

• Transport & logistics: an uptick in December pushed the segment to 22% of all notices, yet metro and rail operators skipped the multi-day shutdowns seen in 2023.

Why the Numbers Fell

Pay catch-up – two incremental wage reviews absorbed part of 2023’s inflation shock, easing pressure on household budgets for many public workers.

Targeted protest tactics – unions opted for selective overtime bans, which count as 1 notice instead of dozens of school-by-school filings.

Government bargaining – the Portugal Finance Ministry front-loaded 2025 budget talks; early agreement on pay scales removed the need for "warning" notices used as leverage in past years.

Judicial scrutiny – courts invalidated several blanket notices in 2024, prompting legal departments to rethink strategy and file fewer—but stronger—warnings in 2025.

What This Means for Residents

• Commuters: Expect fewer timetable surprises, though December and semester-change periods remain high-risk. Keep the mobility-app alerts on.

• Parents: Overtime boycotts translate into shorter school hours, not outright closures. Line up backup care for afternoons rather than full days.

• Patients: Hospital services continue to declare minimum-care limits. Routine consultations may shift but emergency rooms should stay open; always confirm before travelling long distances.

• Small businesses: Restaurant and retail owners along transport corridors saw more predictable foot traffic, aiding revenue planning. Still build a 1-day buffer into perishable-goods orders.

The Political Front

The Portugal Parliament begins committee hearings this month on a draft law that would:

• Expand compulsory minimum services to childcare and elder-care facilities.

• Impose fines up to €75,000 for unions that breach new notification rules.

Labour confederations ‎CGTP and UGT branded the bill a "red-line attack" on collective rights and jointly staged a 400,000-strong one-day strike in December. More coordinated action could follow if the text passes unchanged.

Impact on Expats & Investors

Foreign companies operating shared-service centres in Lisbon and Porto reported 30% fewer lost staff-hours linked to strikes last year, according to AICEP surveys. That makes Portugal slightly more competitive than Spain, where rail and port stoppages rose in 2025. Yet the looming legal fight could inject volatility; corporate HR teams should monitor notice filings via DGERT’s public portal to update BCPs (business-continuity plans).

Looking Ahead

Analysts at ISEG – Lisbon School of Economics & Management say the country is "one pay round away" from stabilising labour relations if GDP expands above 1.5% as forecast. Should growth stall, the 2025 respite may prove temporary. Either way, the new strike-law vote scheduled for early spring will set the tone: pass it with consensus, and 2026 could deliver the calmest service calendar in a decade; ram it through over union objections, and the 839 figure might be remembered as the calm before another storm.