One Win from Top-Five: Portugal’s March Friendlies Shape 2026 World Cup Draw

A wafer-thin gap of 0.08 ranking points now separates Portugal from a top-five spot in FIFA’s latest table, yet Roberto Martínez’s men are still holding firm in 6th. While the update brings little change to Portugal’s own position, the shuffle elsewhere – notably Morocco’s leap into 8th – shows just how volatile the list can become in a World Cup year.

Quick glance

• 6th place preserved with 1,760.38 points for the Seleção das Quinas

• Brazil only fractions ahead; Spain, Argentina, France and England form the rest of the top 5

• Morocco and Senegal surge, proving continental tournaments can be ranking accelerators

• 2025 Nations League title remains Portugal’s biggest point source

• Next ranking drop: 1 April 2026 – after the March friendlies against Czechia and Mexico that Lisbon officials quietly see as “mini-finals” for a top-five assault

Why the number matters beyond prestige

Landing in the first seeding pot for the 2026 World Cup draw could hinge on breaking into the top 5. A higher seed would, in theory, dodge early meetings with Spain or Argentina and ensure São João-night street parties last a little longer. Right now, Portugal’s Elo-based total is so close to Brazil’s that a single competitive win or loss before the draw could switch their places. The Federation’s analysts calculate that beating Czechia (ranked 17th) in March would yield roughly +6 points, enough to leapfrog the five-time world champions if Brazil merely draws its own friendly with Croatia.

2025: the results still paying dividends

The Nations League triumph in Munich remains the cornerstone of Portugal’s ranking health. Wins over Germany and Spain, weighted heavily by FIFA’s algorithm, generated more than +22 points in June alone. Even the March split against Denmark – a 0-1 loss followed by a 5-2 win – netted a small positive balance because of the goal margin in the return leg. Across the calendar year Portugal compiled 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, scoring 29 and conceding 13. Analysts credit the side’s “spine of world-class quality”: Rúben Dias anchoring the back line, Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva dictating tempo, and the evergreen Cristiano Ronaldo, who converted both his penalties in the Nations League final shoot-out.

Movers and shakers around Portugal

The headline change is Morocco’s rise to 8th, powered by a home run to the Africa Cup of Nations final. Senegal’s jump to 12th after defending its continental crown also demonstrates the ranking mileage available outside Europe. At the summit, Spain tighten their grip on 1st, with Argentina, France and England in hot pursuit. That congested pack means every friendly feels like a qualifier; UEFA coaches now openly talk about arranging “ranking-friendly” fixtures— high-stakes meetings disguised as warm-ups — to squeeze out extra decimals.

What the Federation will – and won’t – do next

Contrary to rumours of a grand strategic overhaul, the FPF plans a conservative approach: two March friendlies, a short Alpine training camp in May, and a June send-off match at Estádio do Dragão. Officials insist that loading the calendar with extra fixtures would be "penny-wise, point-foolish," given how FIFA’s formula penalises low-importance games. Instead, coaching staff have asked for sports-science tweaks: tapering workloads to ensure that Bruno Fernandes and Nuno Mendes, who logged more than 4,500 club minutes last season, arrive fresh in North America.

Road to North America

Portugal’s group in the expanded World Cup – Group K with Colombia and Uzbekistan plus a playoff qualifier – looks kind on paper, but Martínez warns the margin for error is thinner than ever. A slip against Colombia could cost not only progression but also the hard-earned 6th place. The manager’s refrain has become familiar in press rooms from Porto to Faro: “Ranking points are the new currency.” For now, Portugal’s wallet is healthy, but April’s update will tell whether it is fat enough to buy top-pot security.